We have sorted out the characteristics of securities companies' stocks with high performance in the seven staged market increases of securities companies since 2008. There are the following findings
(1) the stocks with the highest growth in the bottom grinding period were large market value and low Pb securities companies before 2015 and small market value securities companies after the second half of 2015.
The main reason is that there is a long-term valuation premium for small securities companies before 2015, and the valuation of large securities companies is usually low. Therefore, securities companies with lower Pb and larger scale in the bottom grinding period are considered to have lower risk and are more favored; After 2015, especially since 2018, the valuation premium of large securities companies, especially Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) valuation premium, is obvious, the valuation of large securities companies is no longer the lowest, and even some small securities companies are in the undervalued range for a long time.
(2) the leader of the main range of the market is usually from small market value securities companies. While the circulating market value is small, it needs to have both the conditions of poor performance and high valuation.
Among the seven stage quotes, the leading stock with the highest increase in 6 times is the stock with small free circulation market value. Only in 2020, the leading stock Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) is a large and medium-sized brokerage with free circulation market value.
(3) the leader in the main range of the market usually has good performance and has an advantageous position in the business with high performance flexibility at that time.
Before 2012, leading securities companies were often securities companies with high proportion of brokerage business. The reason is that before the deregulation of the restrictions on the establishment of business departments in 2013 and the deregulation of Internet brokerage business in 2014, the commission rate is still in a high position, and the proportion of brokerage business income is high as a whole. At the same time, before the arrival of the A-share market, it is often a comprehensive bull market, the trading volume is obviously enlarged, the brokerage business is often the business with the highest growth rate, the proportion of brokerage business is relatively high, and the performance of securities companies is often the best.
However, since then, with the decline in the proportion of brokerage income and the emergence of a structural bull market, it has changed. Under the registration system, under the background of the overall prosperity and head concentration of investment banking business, the investment banking business was excellent in 2019 and 2020, and the performance of securities companies was better, while the public fund business increased significantly in 2021.
(4) supervise the leader and dilemma reversal leader under the new deal.
In 2020, in the context of building aircraft carrier level securities companies, the Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) , China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) , and the merger concept securities companies under Bank Of China Limited(601988) of the group performed well.
At the end of 2018, in the context of policy relief for enterprises, The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) who had been most seriously trapped in the stock pledge business benefited the most and became the leader at that time.
(5) in the peak period, small market value securities companies often perform well.
In the seven times of market peaking in history, small market value securities companies performed well, which may also be the performance of tight market funds at the end of the market.
(6) stay away from over valued stocks without performance support.
The typical market is The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) , which is from November 2008 to August 2009, from December 2011 to June 2012, and from December 2012 to February 2013. Due to the high valuation and general performance of the company, the increase of the company is much lower than that of the peers.
Investment advice
The establishment of the policy of entering the market for a long time and the establishment of the policy of raising funds for a long time is expected to promote the development of the industry as a whole, and the valuation rate of the pension fund is expected to be low, which is conducive to the development of the short-term capital settlement market. The long-term launch of the international board and the comprehensive promotion of the registration system all need a healthy capital market, which is optimistic about the long-term development of the capital market and the securities industry.
In terms of individual stocks, four main lines have benefited significantly: 1) the market share has been continuously improved, benefiting from the great development of wealth management, and the performance is significantly better than that of China stock market news; 2) China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , which have advantages in institutional business and have tenacious performance when the business environment is extremely challenging; 3) China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , where the industrial chain layout of public funds is leading and the risk business is expected to reverse the dilemma; 4) Some small market value securities companies with low valuation.
Risk tips
The external inflation and interest rate increase exceeded expectations, the equity market fell sharply, the risk of securities companies' stock pledge business, the risk control of derivatives was insufficient, the trading volume shrank sharply, and the capital market reform was lower than expected.
