Ternary and lithium iron phosphate are developed in parallel, the general trend of high nickel is weakened, and the subsidy impact is weakened. Market competition leads to the reasonable selection of car factory and battery factory. Different material characteristics correspond to different application fields, and the development of application fields determines the proportion change of materials. Therefore, lithium iron phosphate and high nickel ternary are developed in parallel. The share of high nickel in ternary materials has rapidly increased from 12.5% in 2019 to 38.3%, and its core position is expected to be further improved.
Considering high nickel in four dimensions, technical barriers build a profit moat and highlight the unit economy. A. low cobalt is conducive to cost control and high nickel is conducive to energy density;
B. performance advantages, preparation barriers and capital expenditure result in higher ton cost, which also determines high processing fee and high gross profit: high nickel has a gross profit advantage of about 3-7pct;
C. in recent years, with the increase of raw material cost, the increase of high nickel ton cost is smaller than that of medium and low nickel, and the watt hour cost difference gradually converges, forming a cost advantage: sensitivity analysis, the cost advantage of high nickel kwh power is – 5 ~ 24 yuan; d. Considering the cost, charged capacity and weight of the whole vehicle, high nickel and higher gram capacity and compaction density, it can effectively reduce the volume and weight and bring long endurance and lightweight; Further, with the release of industrial capacity expansion, the optimization of technology and process, the improvement of yield, the operating cost per unit product is expected to continue to decline, and the high nickel positive electrode is expected to maintain a higher gross profit level and more economical watt hour cost. Therefore, ternary positive electrode enterprises have increased the layout of high nickel, and the market is accelerating to tilt towards high nickel.
The incremental space of high nickel positive electrode is broad, and the competition pattern of ternary positive electrode continues to be optimized. Driven by the high prospect of new energy vehicles, the incremental space of high nickel ternary market is broad. The global demand for high nickel positive electrode is expected to reach 1.56 million tons in 2025, with a five-year compound growth rate of 46%. During the period of rapid development of cathode material industry, the pattern is relatively scattered due to rapid technological change, cautious expansion of multiple products and cost plus pricing mode, but the pattern is gradually optimized. CR3 / Cr5 were 31% / 48% in 2018 and 38% / 56% in 2021 respectively. Structurally, front-line manufacturers are basically full of production and sales, and the supply is in short supply. In the early stage, low-end capacity is phased out, and the capacity utilization rate of the industry is gradually improved. With stable technology, mature production process, release of production capacity and driven by customer pattern, the improvement of positive concentration will be the general trend, and enterprises with advantages in technology, resources, production capacity and customers will stand out in the industry.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to the high nickel leader Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , the international layout leading Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , the cost advantage obvious Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) , and the integrated layout complete Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) .
Risk tips
The development of new energy vehicles is less than expected; Disruptive breakthroughs in related technologies; The industry competition is fierce, and the product price drops more than expected; Capacity expansion and product development were less than expected.
