Event: Recently, China Electricity Council released the power consumption from January to April 2022, the National Bureau of statistics released the energy production from January to April, and the National Bureau of statistics released the PMI index announcement in April.
From January to April 2022, the total electricity demand of the whole society was 2680.9 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a two-year compound growth rate of 12.3%. According to the data of China electricity Union, by industry, the power consumption of the primary industry was 31.9 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%; The power consumption of the secondary industry was 1770.4 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9% (including 1740 billion kwh of industrial power, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0%); The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 453.1 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 425.4 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. In terms of provinces, except Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangxi and Liaoning, the whole society’s power consumption in other provinces has achieved positive growth. The growth rate of the whole society’s power consumption in 17 provinces has exceeded the national average. Among them, Tibet, Jiangxi, Hubei, Anhui and Sichuan rank among the top five, with growth rates of 19.0%, 10.6%, 9.4%, 9.3% and 7.8% respectively. In terms of regions, the power consumption of the whole society in the East, middle, West and northeast regions was 12158, 5146, 7974 and 153.1 billion kwh respectively, with growth rates of 2.4%, 7.4%, 3.0% and 1.4% respectively.
Affected by the continuous impact of the epidemic, the total electricity consumption of the whole society in April was 636.2 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and the growth rate changed from increase to negative, with a month on month decrease of 8.4%. According to the data of the national energy administration, by industry, the power consumption of the primary industry was 7.8 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%; The power consumption of the secondary industry was 446.8 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% (of which the industrial power consumption was 439.5 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%); The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 97.9 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%; The domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 83.7 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. In terms of regions, the growth rate of the whole society’s power consumption in the East, middle, West and northeast regions was – 4.4%, 2.0%, 2.4% and – 5.9% respectively.
In April, the comprehensive PMI output index was 42.7%, down 6.1 percentage points month on month, and the decline of enterprise production and operation prosperity increased. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry in April was 47.4%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry continued to decline; The non manufacturing business activity index was 41.9%, down 6.5 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point. The overall non manufacturing business activity continued to slow down. Among them, the business activity index of the construction industry was 52.7%, down 5.4 percentage points from the previous month; The business activity index of the service industry was 40.0%, down 6.7 percentage points from the previous month. The three indexes are significantly lower than the critical point, indicating that the overall decline of China’s economic prosperity level is large. The epidemic has had a huge impact on production activities and import and export trade, and the downward pressure on China’s economy has increased.
From January to April 2022, China generated 2.6 trillion kwh of electricity, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%.; In April, the national power generation was 608.6 billion kwh, down 4.3% year-on-year and 9.2% month on month. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the decline of thermal power expanded in April, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%, an increase of 6.1 percentage points over the previous month; The growth rate of hydropower, nuclear power and wind power slowed down to varying degrees, and the growth rate of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation accelerated.
Hydropower increased by 17.4%, 2.4 percentage points slower than last month; Nuclear power increased by 0.9%, 1.3 percentage points slower than last month; Wind power increased by 14.5%, 9.3 percentage points slower than last month Power generation increased by 24.9 percentage points over the previous month.
Investment suggestion: Thermal Power: the upper limit of coal price transaction is determined, superimposed with the growth of coal production capacity, the supply and demand structure is improved, and the coal price is expected to decline; In addition, the electricity price in the coal power market is expected to remain floating, partially offsetting the impact of high coal prices. The thermal power industry is expected to usher in a performance inflection point in the second quarter, and the annual performance is expected to rebound sharply. The recommended core view targets are: Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , and the relevant targets are: China Resources Power (H), Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) . Hydropower: the tight supply and demand of electricity is expected to continue to drive the rise of electricity price in the hydropower market. With the advantages of water scenery basin integration and abundant cash flow, hydropower enterprises are expected to accelerate the development of new energy. Recommended targets: Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.Ltd(600674) . New energy operation: the industry continues to boom, and the installed capacity is expected to increase rapidly, driving performance growth. Recommended targets: Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , related targets: China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Longyuan Power. Nuclear power: the best base load energy under the goal of “double carbon”, and the industry is expected to develop continuously and steadily. Recommended target: Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) , related target: China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) .
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, policy implementation is less than expected, power demand is declining, installed capacity is less than expected, incoming water is less than expected, and market electricity price is less than expected.
