The recent rebound of A-Shares is obvious, which is independent of the strength of US stocks China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that the most difficult moment has passed, but A-Shares are still facing the pressure of weakening Chinese credit and bottom of fundamentals, which is generally in the “U-shaped bottom” Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that the bottom area of the market is now under repair, and the growth stocks represented by digital economy and low-carbon economy deserve attention.
\u3000\u3000 Citic Securities Company Limited(600030)
market confidence gradually restored
Investor confidence began to recover gradually, the resilience of A-Shares was significantly enhanced, and the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations and the Fed’s interest rate hike on A-Shares was also significantly attenuated. It is expected that the market will start the medium-term repair market for several months, and the four main lines of modern infrastructure, real estate, resumption of work and production and consumption repair will rotate slowly.
On the one hand, with the improvement of multiple factors, investor confidence began to recover gradually. The situation of epidemic prevention and control has improved significantly, and the market has strengthened the confidence that Omicron can be effectively controlled; April is expected to be the low point of the whole year, and the resumption of work and production will promote the trend improvement of the economy from May; Overseas inflation pressure has become the focus of contradiction, and the trade environment may be improved in stages; After the investors’ positions are fully adjusted, the market selling pressure has obviously subsided, and there has been a continuous bottom layout of incremental funds in the near future. On the other hand, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and the Fed’s interest rate hike on A-Shares has declined. From the perspective of factors affecting the exchange rate, cross-border capital flows are stable, and sustained and rapid unilateral exchange rate fluctuations are difficult to sustain; At the same time, the net inflow trend of allocated foreign capital has resumed, and the game behavior of Chinese investors on the current round of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve has also been completed in April and weakened significantly after May.
Overall, market confidence began to recover gradually. It is expected that A-Shares will officially open the medium-term repair market for several months. It is suggested to firmly lay out the four main lines of modern infrastructure, real estate, resumption of work and production and consumption repair.
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phased long resistance is less than short
It takes time for A-Shares to bottom, but the resistance of periodic long is less than that of short. Eat the market and grasp the rebound window period, but it is not suitable to catch up with the high. Kinetic energy will be attenuated above 3150 to 3200. Use the rebound window to tangential value stocks and begin to pay attention to the opportunity to go south.
Gradually tangential value of A-Shares and additional allocation of H-share technology leaders. The focus of stock selection is on low-risk characteristics. For stocks with undervalued value, performance and high performance certainty, the subdivided leader will be better than the tail company. Recommendations: 1. Certainty of public investment led by government expenditure: construction, power grid, photovoltaic, wind power and the midstream of some cycles such as consumption of building materials and steel in the second quarter; 2. Pay attention to the approaching opportunity of consumer goods: pigs, food and beverage and hotels. 3. The direction of stabilizing cash flow: coal, chemical resource products, second tier central state-owned enterprises, real estate and banks.
\u3000\u3000 China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995)
market shows relative resilience
At present, the policy, valuation, capital, behavior and other indicators of the A-share market show some characteristics of the bottom. The market already has the value of the middle line. In the future, we will focus on the fundamental repair under the background of the gradual implementation of China’s steady growth policy. There is still some uncertainty in the short term of the market. The lower than expected social finance last week may partly reflect the characteristics of weak current demand. The “steady growth” will continue to face challenges such as real estate, epidemic and overseas environment. It is suggested to continue to wait patiently for more positive catalytic factors.
Structurally, the undervalued “steady growth” field still has a certain allocation value; The recent growth style has a good performance, which may mainly benefit from the phased repair of valuation brought by factors such as the positive progress of epidemic prevention and control. The future performance may also need to be comprehensively judged by the changes of macro factors such as overseas growth, inflation and policies, as well as China’s “stable expectation” measures.
Anxin Securities:
waiting for a clearer signal on the right
At present, it belongs to the nature of rebound. With the recent controllable epidemic, steady growth and falling inflation, the first three major anxiety factors (cost impact, supply chain and resumption of work and production) were alleviated, and high boom track stocks rebounded.
From the perspective of transaction logic, it is in line with the movement process of “steady growth and realization, high prosperity and turnaround”. If the steady growth is gradually implemented and the expectation is fulfilled, the high boom is expected to usher in a turnaround. At the same time, the realization signs of steady growth: 1. The two sessions and the Political Bureau meeting (Policy); 2. Industrial added value (fundamental profit expected inflection point, the end of the second quarter); 3. Real estate stocks and consumer stocks stabilized and rebounded (transaction logic, the real estate excess market was started on March 15, and the consumption excess market has been started since April).
For the current four main lines of “steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation”, “steady growth” is still the main position (positional warfare, not switching back and forth). It is suggested that the configuration priority is: steady growth (infrastructure, real estate chain and bank) High prosperity (digital intelligence, photovoltaic, military industry, semiconductor, wind power and new energy vehicles)), post epidemic repair (social services, logistics, medical beauty, food and beverage, etc.) global inflation (coal, nonferrous metals and petrochemical).
YueKai Securities:
A-Shares are expected to continue the shock rebound trend
Driven by both policy underpinning and monetary easing, A-Shares are expected to continue the shock rebound trend, focusing on three main lines.
First, pay attention to the oversold rebound opportunities of the growth sector. Since the beginning of this year, the growth sectors, including new energy and semiconductors, have fallen sharply. At present, the risks in relevant industries have been gradually released. Driven by the rapid growth of performance and the recovery of market sentiment, it is expected to usher in an oversold rebound. It is suggested to focus on high-quality targets in subdivided fields such as new energy, military industry and semiconductors.
Second, focus on the main line of steady growth with policy force. Internal and external disturbances increase the downward pressure on the economy. As the main policy line, steady growth will still be the main market in the long run. It is suggested to pay attention to the new and old infrastructure directly benefiting from counter cyclical regulation and the targets with outstanding performance and low valuation in the real estate sector.
Third, pay attention to the industries whose marginal improvement in the first quarter is higher than expected. Although the overall performance growth of the first quarter report of A-Shares slowed down, some industries still maintained high-speed growth, and even the marginal improvement exceeded expectations. Among them, the marginal improvement of the upstream resource products industry is large, and the high boom is expected to continue. In addition, the power equipment and commercial retail in the middle and lower reaches have also improved, so we can bargain hunting and pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the performance improvement exceeding expectations. Reporter Zhang Jian
