On January 14, the CSI bank index fell by more than 2%, the first major adjustment since 2022. Celestica fund expressed its view that at present, it continues to be optimistic about the undervalued reversal repair market of the banking sector under the background of the continuous improvement of bank fundamentals, more active and promising policies and the switching of capital style to the undervalued sector.
Since 2022, when the overall market fluctuated downward, the elephant in the banking sector has danced and played a better role in protecting the market. Tianhong Fund believes that there are three main reasons for the rise of the banking sector in the beginning of the year. First, China's policy and economic environment are conducive to the development of the banking industry. It is worth looking forward to the direction and strength of the national "steady growth". Banks, real estate and other undervalued sectors that benefit from loose liquidity and steady growth may become the final winners and losers and are expected to perform prominently in the market. Second, the bank's performance forecast is frequent, the structure is improved, and the high growth rate is bright, which greatly exceeds the market expectation. As of January 13, China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) and other six banks have disclosed their performance express. From the announcement information, listed banks have not only made great progress in performance growth, but also significantly improved the proportion of loans, and significantly improved the quality of loans. Third, under the tide of international interest rate hike and tightening, undervalued banks are expected to become the next main force leading the rise. The Federal Reserve plans to accelerate the reduction of the scale of bond purchase from January this year. The gradually improved economic data may pave the way for the interest rate increase in spring. The yield of U.S. bonds of various maturities has increased significantly at the beginning of the new year. The yield of 10-year U.S. bonds has risen above 1.70%. The upward yield of U.S. bonds is a great pressure on the overvalued sector. In the process of capital re selection, the downward space of the undervalued sector is relatively limited, while the expectation of upward repair in a favorable environment is relatively strong, and the defensive attribute of rising and falling is strong.
For the decline of the banking sector on January 14, Tianhong Fund believes that, on the one hand, the current growth sector and the undervalued sector led by banks form a seesaw effect. When the growth sector retreats greatly and the banking sector rises for several days, the switching of funds will lead to the growth sector and banks changing one another; On the other hand, the banking sector has been rising for some time, and there may be some selling pressure in the short term, which will be cashed in the face of good news such as high growth of bank performance. However, short-term investor behavior and sentiment can only affect short-term stock price fluctuations, while the long-term market will return to the fundamentals of the banking sector.
