Under the influence and stimulation of the high rise and fall of the overseas market, the small net inflow of funds from the north of RMB 282 million, the sharp decline of the cycle and finance, the joint rise of the premium of science and technology and medicine, and the reappearance of the "general decline + sharp decline" of most industry segmentation indexes, the stock indexes of Shenzhen and Shanghai have given a bottom grinding K line of rise and fall, and the volatility may continue to reach a new low to test the previous low, Or build the bottom structure at the end of the five waves, or form resistance at the gap support position, which is conducive to the small cycle inertia to test the low point, forming a daily rebound trend.
In terms of the Shanghai stock index, it opened low and took the negative line of large-scale decline, broke through the 3312 point large cycle upward trend line, which is a weak bottom sounding structure for small cycles. However, when three waves are greater than one wave, the front low 3478 point line has strong support; The gem index operates five waves in a small cycle to adjust the structure. The gap position at 3039 points gives a large-scale attack positive line. In coordination with the shortening of the green column of MACD index and the brewing of golden fork, it is expected that the small cycle will test upward and break through 3150 points of kinetic energy and potential energy; Combined with the operation of the Shenzhen Component Index's three waves of falling inertia bottom without giving an effective stop signal, and the high-volume positive line of the Kechuang 50 index opened low and reversed the decline of the previous trading day, it is expected that the growth index will reverse the differentiation trend of the main board index, highlighting that the investment style entering 2022 will have a fundamental change.
At the close of the market, coal, oil, tourism, construction, insurance, securities, real estate, chemical fiber, construction machinery, transportation facilities, property management, lease and purchase rights, combustible ice, water conservancy construction, sports concept, natural gas and other sectors led the decline, with an average volatility of more than 2%, which had a strong negative impact and impact on the Shanghai index. Combined with the long short energy ratio, 104 stocks rose by more than 9%, 267 stocks rose by more than 5%, 524 stocks rose by more than 3%, 13 stocks fell by more than 9%, 94 stocks fell by more than 5%, and 663 stocks fell by more than 3%. It is expected that the continuous decline of the "three high" stocks of institutions and the accelerated risk of the theme "demon stocks" will be cleared, Driven by the rise of the "medicine and technology" sector, it is expected to form a local structure, steadily promote the bull market, and form a "new core main line".
On the news front, the United Nations released the world economic situation and outlook for 2022, which said that the global economy is facing great pressure due to the continuous epidemic of covid-19 pneumonia, labor market problems, continuous supply chain challenges and increasing pressure of inflation. It is predicted that global economic growth will fall to 4% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023. Combined with the Federal Reserve's intention to raise interest rates after the completion of asset purchase, it will shrink the table "after a period of time" after starting to raise interest rates; The Bank of Japan is debating the possibility of raising interest rates before inflation reaches the 2% target; The Bank of Korea raised the benchmark interest rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, raising interest rates by 25 basis points is in line with expectations, waiting for liquidity information, and it is expected that the global financial market may enter a period of wide volatility.
In China, the supreme law, the guiding opinions on giving full play to the role of judicial functions to help the development of small, medium and micro enterprises, proposes to support and ensure relevant departments to prevent and deal with the risk of overdue delivery of real estate projects, ensure that migrant workers' wages are paid in place, and ensure the legitimate rights and interests of commercial housing buyers; The people's court shall not take deduction measures for the funds in the supervision account of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and shall not affect the use of the funds in the account in accordance with laws and regulations; The funds in the special wage account and wage deposit account of migrant workers shall not be frozen or allocated.
The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the guidelines for the construction of intelligent manufacturing standard system in building materials industry (version 2021), which made it clear that by 2023, the intelligent manufacturing standard system in building materials industry will be preliminarily established and no less than 20 relevant standards will be formulated; For the subdivided fields with high intelligence level, the standards of intelligent equipment, intelligent mine and intelligent factory are basically covered, and the important intelligent services, intelligent enabling technology and integrated interconnection standards are covered.
The Ministry of Commerce stressed to strengthen the training of enterprises, especially for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and the central and western regions; Continuously improve the function of China free trade zone service network to provide timely and high-quality information and consulting services for enterprises; Guide local governments to strengthen the connection between local development and RCEP, identify the opportunities brought by RCEP, and help enterprises improve their ability to participate in cooperation and competition in a broader international environment to achieve better development; In 2021, China's actual use of foreign capital exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, and the introduction of investment in high-tech industries increased rapidly. The actual use of foreign capital increased by 17.1% year-on-year, including 10.7% in high-tech manufacturing and 19.2% in high-tech services. In combination with the data that the import and export of China's comprehensive bonded zone, the pilot free trade zone and Hainan free trade port increased by 24.3%, 26.4% and 57.7% respectively in 2021, it is expected that the stock indexes of Shenzhen and Shanghai with extreme ups and downs may continue to release local risks, but the continuous rise of "two low and one high" investment varieties will form a demonstration effect from point to area, And form a new investment "growth pole".
The author believes that the National Health Commission has issued documents such as the national eye health plan for the 14th five year plan (2021-2025), the implementation plan for the 14th five year plan for the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China, and some measures taken by the State Food and drug administration to support the comprehensive revitalization of Northeast China to support the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, The development and Reform Commission of Qinghai Province issued the implementation plan of Qinghai Province to strictly restrict energy efficiency and promote the technological transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas (2021-2025). Sichuan guided foreign investment in green and low-carbon, electronic information, biomedicine, new energy vehicles, food and beverage, Gansu Province issued the development plan of Hexi Corridor Economic Belt in the 14th five year plan, and Shanghai focused on digital economy, green and low-carbon Yuancosmos, intelligent terminals and other fields strive to achieve the positive combination of boxing policies such as "five good and five no lack", clarify the core beneficiary industries and industries, and the probability will continue to maintain stability and rise, and run the main rising wave with positive head. In view of this, we will continue to focus on semiconductors, components, lithography machines, MCU chips, new materials, data centers, industrial motherboards, 5g, artificial intelligence, Internet of things, quantum technology, aviation, metauniverse, communication equipment, new energy vehicles, it equipment, UHV, energy storage, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy, green power, scarce resources, rare earth permanent magnets, securities, insurance In the sectors of medicine, medical care, biological vaccine, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, grasp the "two low and one high" subdivision of leading companies for bargain hunting layout, which should be that the opportunities outweigh the risks. (Note: the above information is only for reference and not for specific operation suggestions. There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious.)
Author: Zhang Cuixia, chief investment adviser of Jufeng investment
Attachment: daily analysis diagram of different indexes
(daily analysis diagram of Shanghai stock index 2022-1-14)
(daily analysis diagram of gem index 2022-1-14)
