Core view
This week, the international crude oil price continued to rise and stood at US $80 / barrel. Considering the decline of US crude oil inventory for the seventh consecutive week, we are still optimistic about the moderate rise of international oil price. The recent central economic work conference pointed out that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and the transformation from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of carbon will be realized as soon as possible. At this stage, the policy that raw material energy consumption is not included in the total energy consumption is conducive to the approval of projects with high raw material energy consumption of leading enterprises with cost competitive advantages in the chemical industry, especially upstream chemical enterprises with coal and petroleum as raw materials. In the future, the long-term development space of subdivided leading companies in the chemical industry will be opened. We mainly recommend China’s private refining and chemical leaders [ Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ] [ Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ] and coal chemical industry leaders [ Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ], [ Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ], as well as representative enterprises in China’s chemical industry [ Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ]. Recently, due to the implementation of relevant policies such as carbon emission and the rise of international oil prices, there is a strong demand for biodiesel abroad. At the same time, China’s biodiesel with waste oil as raw material can enjoy the incentive policy of double points, and it is expected to replace biodiesel with palm oil and soybean oil in the European market in the future, with a huge market space, We are optimistic about the continuous expansion of production capacity of Chinese biodiesel enterprises and the profit expansion trend of products in the future. In the current market environment, we suggest to focus on high growth companies with strong certainty, such as Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co.Ltd(688196) (biodiesel), Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) (pesticide technical drugs and preparations), Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) (bio based chemicals and daily chemical products) and Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) (aramid).
Key data tracking
Price rise and fall: the top five increases in the price of chemical products this week are bisphenol A (10.97%), polymerized MDI (5.55%), butyl acetate (3.50%), PX (3.34%) and PTA (3.31%); The top five chemical product prices fell this week were acetic acid (- 40.33%), diammonium phosphate (- 20.00%), polyester staple (- 19.28%), styrene (- 18.21%) and FDY (- 18.07%).
Rise and fall of price difference: the top five increases in price difference of chemical products this week are soft foam polyether (149.90%), styrene (134.37%), propylene (MTO method) (84.25%), BDO (CIS anhydrite method) (76.43%) and ethylene oxide (66.73%); Methanol (- 152.04%), polyester staple (- 28.14%), PMMA (- 27.48%), propylene (PDH method) (- 24.33%) and butyl acrylate (- 24.31%) were the top five in the price difference of chemical products this week.
Risk tips
International crude oil prices fluctuate sharply; Poor overseas epidemic control led to a lower than expected recovery.
