1. Overall configuration: the depreciation of RMB is suspended, and the configuration disk continues to flow in.
US inflation peaked and fell, but the range was less than expected. In April, the US CPI grew by 8.3% year-on-year, the first month on month decline in eight months, marking the peak decline of US inflation, but the easing range of inflation pressure is still lower than expected, which roughly reflects the influence of two factors: first, the inflation pressure accelerated to spread to the service industry, such as rent, air tickets, etc; Second, under the geopolitical conflict between Ukraine and Russia, there are still upward risks in global food and energy prices, and the cost side is easy to go up and difficult to go down. Both of them form a certain support for the continuation of high inflation.
The Federal Reserve reiterated its expectation of 50bp interest rate hike, the overseas risk appetite has been repaired, and the devaluation of the RMB has been suspended. In an interview with US media last week, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the firm position of controlling inflation, but also reiterated the expectation of raising interest rates by only 50 basis points in the next two FOMC. After inflation fell short of expectations, the market brewing more expectations of raising interest rates. The reaffirmation of the interest rate increase plan alleviated market concerns to a certain extent. The risk appetite of the US stock market was significantly repaired, and the rhythm of RMB devaluation slowed down significantly in the second half of the week. The US dollar fell slightly against the offshore people’s currency for two consecutive days in the second half of the week. Although the interest rate spread between China and the United States is still in a negative range, the range has narrowed, and the external liquidity constraints have eased periodically.
Allocation orders continued to flow in and trading orders continued to flow out. Recently, there has been a slight outflow of funds from the north, with a net outflow of about 7.322 billion yuan in a single week. In terms of fund type splitting, the allocation disk continued to increase its holdings after returning to the net inflow in April. The net inflow in a single week was about 4.387 billion yuan, and the trading disk continued to outflow, with a net outflow of about 11.394 billion yuan last week. At the same time, funds from the South continued to flow in, with a net inflow of about 19.679 billion yuan last week. As of May 13, the cumulative net inflow of the northward allocation market has reached 54.374 billion yuan this year, and the cumulative net outflow of the northward trading market has reached 73.742 billion yuan this year.
2. Industry allocation: banks rank first in terms of additional allocation, and nonferrous metals are mostly reduced. From an overall perspective, the net inflow of banks (+ 1.585 billion yuan), utilities (+ 1.045 billion yuan) and electronics (+ 872 million yuan) ranks first, with the largest outflow of non-ferrous metals (- 3.116 billion yuan), steel (- 1.369 billion yuan) and food and beverage (- 1.341 billion yuan);
From the perspective of capital type splitting: from the perspective of trading, the net inflow of coal (+ 847 million yuan) is the largest, while the net outflow of power equipment (- 2.302 billion yuan) is the largest; From the perspective of configuration disk, the net inflow of household appliances (+ 1.988 billion yuan) is the largest, while the net outflow of non-ferrous metals (- 962 million yuan) is the largest.
3. Allocation of individual shares: China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) shares increase ranks first, while Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) shares decrease mostly. From an overall perspective, China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) (+ 894 million yuan), Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (+ 659 million yuan) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (+ 561 million yuan) are among the top net inflow; While Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 2.148 billion yuan), Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (- 1.124 billion yuan) and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (- 669 million yuan) mostly flowed out.
From the perspective of fund type splitting: from the perspective of trading order, China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) (+ 451 million yuan), China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (+ 370 million yuan) and Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (+ 357 million yuan) rank first in net inflow; While Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 1.934 billion yuan), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) (- 1.333 billion yuan) and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (- 684 million yuan) mostly flowed out. From the perspective of configuration disk, Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) (+ 1.068 billion yuan), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (+ 757 million yuan) and Goertek Inc(002241) (+ 673 million yuan) are among the top net inflow; While Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (- 632 million yuan), Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) (- 505 million yuan) and Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) (- 450 million yuan) mostly flowed out.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Exchange rate depreciation risk.
