Three logics of industrial deduction:
The first logic: the residents' income compensation brought by financial assistance will be pulled by independent station e-commerce, consumer credit and consumer electronics after some optional consumption is pulled.
The U.S. financial assistance and stimulus directly subsidized residents' income, resulting in a significant recovery in the growth of residents' income and a rapid repair after the impact on the growth of consumer expenditure. The above measures have a significant effect on stabilizing the short-term economy, but the optional consumer industry is under great pressure when the income compensation effect gradually disappears and inflation rises.
The second logic: under the epidemic, both individuals and enterprises must rely on digitization. The penetration of digital related SaaS enterprises and cloud computing enterprises has accelerated significantly. After the epidemic, the growth rate of digital link related enterprises such as teleconference has fallen sharply, and the infrastructure layer is more stable.
The third logic: in the early stage of the epidemic, small and medium-sized enterprises withdrew from the market on a large scale, and the cost of enterprises rose sharply after the upward inflation. And the global supply chain is facing severe challenges. Profits are further concentrated in super large enterprises.
At the same time, the hardest hit by the epidemic is the service industry and related consumption (entertainment, aviation, catering and accommodation, etc.). After the epidemic is controlled, the relative income is more obvious, but the income and valuation have not been completely repaired.
Logic of valuation deduction:
At the beginning of the epidemic. The main logic of this round of inflation: fiscal stimulus (deficit expansion and deficit monetization) promotes the recovery of monetary growth (M2) and brings upward inflation. Moreover, the bad debt rate of the financial system is low, which is conducive to credit expansion; Due to the significantly increased liquidity, the valuation of growth stocks, digital currency and WSB has expanded significantly.
After the Fed's interest rate hike and contraction table was implemented: the valuation multiple was significantly discounted, and the valuation multiple of growth stocks and unprofitable enterprises gradually returned to the pre epidemic situation.
From the perspective of industry:
Cloud computing - 2020: the epidemic has enabled global digitization to complete the penetration acceleration that can only occur seven years before the epidemic
Typical applications: Video Conference (zoom, Tencent Conference), enterprise collaboration (slack, teams), telemedicine (teladoc, American well), digital signature (DocuSign, Adobe sign) and so on have ushered in rapid growth. Completed the rapid digitization of enterprise business links and scenarios. The growth rate dropped after the epidemic, and the cost was also greatly challenged
The cloud infrastructure (IAAs) layer mainly benefits from the long-term cost reduction and efficiency increase of enterprises and the demand for flexible deployment. The growth rate under the epidemic is relatively stable and is relatively less negatively affected by inflation. In 2022q1, Amazon, Microsoft and Google cloud computing continued to maintain high growth rate as a whole.
Cloud system (PAAS) layer and network security benefit from the use of zoom, teladoc and other unstructured data such as video and voice. The demand for data governance increases, and the long-term adoption trend is still accelerating.
E-commerce, consumer electronics - the e-commerce industry has experienced double-click of "penetration improvement" and "concentration improvement". After the epidemic slows down, the growth rate of e-commerce will return to the center before the epidemic, and the change of technology + mode will drive long-term opportunities. Consumer electronics experienced supply chain disruption and inflation affecting demand. It is expected that the inventory disturbance may be gradually digested in 22 years.
OTA, liquor Brigade - after the epidemic control, the relative income is obvious, and the income and valuation have not been completely repaired
Risk tip: macroeconomic risk, intensified competition between cloud computing and e-commerce, and epidemic risk
