Combined with the latest trading sentiment tracking, the rise and fall center continued to be revised, and the oversold sentiment was gradually corrected. Recently, the all a profit-making effect has continued to pick up, the all a rise and fall center has continued to be revised, the indicators of new high stocks and strong stocks have rebounded, the new low stocks and weak stocks have basically been repaired near the historical center, the investor sentiment indicators have continued to rise in the short term, and the oversold sentiment in the early stage has been gradually corrected. In terms of transaction structure, the concentration and differentiation levels are in the normal range, and the main transaction lines rotate rapidly. Recently, the proportion of transactions of lithium battery, security and Baijiu has fallen again, and the proportion of transactions of Medicine (API and medicine circulation) and Architecture (garden engineering and housing construction) has risen to the top.
1. Transaction structure tracking
1) differentiation level of rise and fall: the rise and fall centers have rebounded in the past Sunday, and the differentiation of February 8th has increased. Among them, the median daily rise and fall of individual stocks in recent 5 days, 20 days and 60 days were 0.55%, – 0.30% and – 0.26% respectively; The Income Differentiation of 28 fell to 23.51%, and the degree of transaction differentiation of 28 fell to 22.
2) transaction concentration: the transaction concentration of individual stocks has declined. The transaction proportion of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks changed by – 0.71%, – 0.98% and – 0.84% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 80.1%, 78.1% and 80% respectively. The transaction concentration of the industry as a whole has declined. Among them, the proportion of transactions in the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industries changed by – 0.75%, – 0.44% and – 0.56% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 12.4%, 18.1% and 19.1% respectively.
3) trading differentiation level: the trading differentiation level of individual stocks has rebounded. The trading differentiation coefficients of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks have changed by – 0.1%, 0.6% and 0.2% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 84.4%, 65.9% and 54.6% respectively. The differentiation level of industry transactions has rebounded. The differentiation coefficients of industry transactions in the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% have changed by 0.0%, 1.5% and 2.5% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 83.1%, 53.6% and 56.2% respectively.
2. Market sentiment tracking
1) the investor sentiment index was slightly repaired, and the A-share investor sentiment index (IISI) rebounded to -0.74. 2) The 10 day moving average of the price limit ratio of all a rebounded to 2.96, and the turnover rate of all a rebounded to 6.20%. 3) The VIX Index fell 1.32 month on month to 28.87. 4) The number of new stocks in the whole a rose month on month, and the number of new low stocks fell month on month. Among them, the number of 60 day high stocks rose to 60 on the 10th, and the number of 60 day low stocks fell to 280 on the 10th; At the same time, the 10 day moving average of the number of record high stocks rebounded to 4, and the 10 day moving average of the number of record low stocks fell back to 88. 5) The number of trend dominated stocks fell. Among them, the number of stocks above the 60 day moving average rebounded to 17.13% month on month, hitting a record high in recent January, and the number of stocks rebounded to 30. 6) The proportion of MACD strong stocks in the whole a market rebounded to 7.62%, and the proportion of weak stocks fell to 14.21%. 7) All a leveraged funds sentiment fell to 16.29%. 8) The net outflow of foreign trading ma30 rose to 1.026 billion yuan.
3. Macro and micro liquidity tracking
1) monetary tightness: the net monetary investment is 40 billion yuan, the short-term interest rate is down, the Shibor of each period is down, the interest rate of national debt is down, the credit interest margin of each period is down, and the RMB is depreciated.
2) capital supply: the new issuance scale of partial equity funds was about 1.336 billion yuan, the ETF share decreased by 9.803 billion yuan month on month, the net outflow of funds going north was 7.322 billion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 6.456 billion yuan month on month.
3) capital demand: there are two new IPOs, the initial financing scale is 868 million yuan, the reduction of industrial capital is about 2.623 billion yuan, and there are no new fixed growth projects. In addition, the lifting pressure picked up month on month this week, with the lifting scale of about 51.776 billion yuan.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Macroeconomic fluctuations exceeding expectations; 3. There are some errors in the statistical model.
