China's monetary and fiscal policy
Reverse repo: the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo of 10 billion yuan on the same day, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.1%, unchanged from the previous one. On that day, 20 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired. Meanwhile, the central bank conducted a one-year MLF operation of 100 billion yuan on the same day, with an interest rate of 2.85%, compared with 2.85% the previous time. One hundred billion yuan of MLF is due this month. (issued by the central bank)
Economic data: according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to April, CPI increased by 1.4% year-on-year; The total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 0.2% year-on-year. In April, CPI rose 2.1% year-on-year and 0.4% month on month. From January to April, the ex factory price and purchase price of industrial producers in China increased by 8.5% and 11.2% respectively year-on-year. From January to April, the national service industry production index increased by 0.3% year-on-year. From January to April, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.0% year-on-year. From January to April, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 6.8% year-on-year; Manufacturing investment increased by 12.2%; Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas and water production and supply) increased by 6.5% year-on-year; The investment in real estate development decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 20.9% year-on-year, and the funds in place of real estate development enterprises decreased by 23.6% year-on-year. The real estate development boom index was 89.95 in April. (issued by the Bureau of Statistics)
Overseas monetary and fiscal policy
[Federal Reserve] according to the statement of the Federal Reserve, the table will be reduced at the pace of $47.5 billion per month from June 1; It is expected that it is appropriate to "continue" to raise interest rates. Powell admitted that whether a soft landing can be achieved may actually depend on factors beyond the control of the Federal Reserve, but allowing high inflation means a more severe economic recession. He reiterated that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates by 50 basis points in June and July, and said it might be better to raise interest rates early.
[European Central Bank] the euro zone's trade deficit after quarter adjustment in March was 17.6 billion euros, the largest trade deficit in history; The expected deficit is 17.8 billion euros, compared with the previous deficit of 9.4 billion euros. The European Commission predicts that inflation in the eurozone will reach 6.1% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023, much higher than the target of the European Central Bank. In addition, the conflict in Ukraine is expected to reduce the economic growth of the eurozone to 2.7% in 2022; By 2022, the proportion of the total budget deficit of the eurozone in GDP will fall to 3.7% from 5.1% last year, and will further fall to 2.5% by 2023.
[Germany] the wholesale price index of Germany in April rose 23.8% year-on-year, and the previous value rose 22.6%; The month on month increase was 2.1%, and the previous value increased by 6.9%.
[Japan] Japan's PPI in April increased by 10% year-on-year, expected to increase by 9.4%, and the previous value increased by 9.5%; The month on month growth was 1.2%, expected to increase by 0.8%, and the previous value increased by 0.8%. Tokuhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, said that it still takes time to achieve a stable inflation target. It is expected that the CPI will rise to about 2% from April. The Japanese economy is still recovering from the epidemic, and the stable trend of foreign exchange is very important.
Risk tip: the epidemic spreads beyond expectations, overseas tightens beyond expectations, and global inflation intensifies
