Key investment points
This week's view: on May 13, the central bank released financial statistics for April. In April, the increment of social finance and credit fell more than expected. The increment of social finance scale was 910.2 billion yuan, 946.8 billion yuan less than the same period last year, which was the first time in two years that the increment of social finance scale was less than 1 trillion yuan. In the increment of social financing scale, the increase of RMB loans to the real economy was only 361.6 billion yuan, the lowest level since December 2009. After February, loans to the household sector showed negative growth again, with a decrease of 217 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 745.3 billion yuan. We note that the classification of household loans has been changed from short-term loans and medium and long-term loans to housing loans, consumer loans and operating loans, and the household loans of each caliber have decreased year-on-year. The overall decline in China's demand in April is not as good as the expected decline in China's financial services. Overall, we believe that the sharp decline in credit is mainly due to the significant decline in market demand due to the superposition of three factors: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the epidemic and the Fed's interest rate hike. Among them, the disturbance of the epidemic to the market is the most significant. We believe that although the overall economic situation in April is not ideal, the negative factors affecting economic development will gradually weaken, and the macro-economy is expected to improve after May. Our judgment is mainly based on the following points: first, the epidemic prevention situation in key areas has improved, and the resumption of work and production is being promoted. Second, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has changed from an emergency to a continuous war, and the market is gradually adapting to the state of war in Ukraine. Third, China has issued a series of stable growth policies in the early stage, and the cumulative effect of the policies is being transmitted. To sum up, the lower than expected social finance data in April was mainly disturbed by the recent epidemic. With the gradual success of epidemic prevention, it is suggested to pay attention to the sectors trapped by the epidemic, such as catering, tourism, film, etc. As the war in Ukraine continues and the prices of grain and crude oil are rising, it is suggested to focus on the agriculture and energy sectors in the short term. In the context of the country's continuous measures to stabilize the economy, we can pay long-term attention to the stable growth sectors, such as infrastructure, finance, real estate, building materials, consumption, etc.
China's hot spots: first, the national Standing Committee: support the rescue of coal and power enterprises and further revitalize stock assets. 2、 The central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission adjusted differentiated housing credit policies. 3、 The central bank issued the report on the implementation of China's monetary policy in the first quarter of 2022.
International hot spots: first, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund has completed the review of the valuation of special drawing rights (SDRs). 2、 Russia suspended power supply to Finland and the G7 continued to put pressure on Russia. 3、 The latest financial stability report released by the Federal Reserve shows that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and high inflation are the biggest threats facing the global financial system. The US inflation level is expected to remain at a high level, and the market is worried about the prospect of economic growth.
Last week's high-frequency data tracking: last week, the stock index recovered as a whole. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.76% to close at 308428 points, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.04% to close at 398860 points, and the gem index rose 5.04% to close at 235816 points.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation in China has deteriorated beyond expectations; The geopolitical situation continued to stir the market.
