Event:
On May 17, the Ministry of Finance announced the fiscal revenue and expenditure in April 2022. From January to April, the national general public budget revenue was 7429.3 billion yuan, an increase of 5% after deducting the factors of tax rebate, and a decrease of 4.8% according to the natural caliber. The national general public budget expenditure was 8093.3 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9% over the same period last year.
Comments:
There is no need to panic about the decline of general fiscal revenue. The downturn of land finance is the core drag of broad fiscal revenue
The slowdown of general fiscal revenue is mainly due to the impact of retention tax rebate. The pressure of broad fiscal revenue comes more from government funds. In April, the broad fiscal revenue was - 39.8% year-on-year, down from - 3.8% last month; Among them, the general fiscal revenue was - 41.3% year-on-year, which was - 4.9% after excluding the factors of tax rebate, which was significantly lower than 3.4% in March. The revenue completion progress in the first four months was about 39%, which was a high level in recent years; In contrast, the revenue of government funds was significantly dragged down. In the first four months, only 17.8% of the annual budget was completed, which was - 34.4% year-on-year in April and - 22.2% lower than that in the previous month.
In addition to the tax rebate, the tax revenue was also partially disturbed by the epidemic, rather than the continued high growth of tax revenue. In April, the tax revenue decreased by 47.3% year-on-year, which was - 6.6% after excluding the factors of tax rebate, which was lower than - 0.2% of the previous month, or related to the impact of the epidemic and the delay of tax payment, the enterprise and individual income tax increased negatively, and the tax related to export and land also decreased significantly; What is more puzzling is that the consumption tax increased rapidly in April, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. Non tax revenue continued to maintain double-digit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3% in April, down from 14.9% in March.
The drag of land finance accelerated, further pushed up the pressure of local fiscal revenue and expenditure, and increased the operational difficulties at the grass-roots level and the constraints of local steady growth. In April, the central and local government revenues were 9.4% and - 36.3% year-on-year respectively, which was mainly due to the drag of land finance; In April, the income from the transfer right of state-owned land at the local level was - 37.9% year-on-year, lower than - 22.8% of the previous month, resulting in the income of local government funds at the local level only completing 17.4% of the whole year in the first four months.
Broad fiscal expenditure has slowed down temporarily and is expected to accelerate in the future. We will increase investment in ensuring people's livelihood, stable employment and infrastructure
The growth of broad fiscal expenditure slowed down, or due to the disturbance of the epidemic and the drag of the issuance of special bonds, which is expected to accelerate in May. In April, the broad fiscal expenditure was 1.7% year-on-year, down from 23.1% last month, and the expenditure of general finance and government funds slowed down; Among them, the general fiscal expenditure was - 2% year-on-year and 10.4% lower than that in March, but the advance of expenditure made the progress of general expenditure in the first four months not slow and accounted for 30.3% of the budget; With the weakening of the impact of "peak staggering" of special bond issuance, the growth of government fund expenditure fell slightly, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5% in April, lower than 69.1% in March.
Under the influence of the epidemic, health expenditure accelerated, while infrastructure related expenditure mostly slowed down. Among the general fiscal expenditure in April, the expenditure on health, agriculture, forestry and water affairs accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5% and 28.4% respectively, an increase of 3.5 and 14.3 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month, and the other sub items fell to varying degrees. Compared with the same period last year, the expenditure on infrastructure construction and environmental protection projects in urban and rural areas decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 2.7% year-on-year, and the expenditure on infrastructure construction and environmental protection projects decreased by more than 7% year-on-year.
The top priority for stable fiscal growth is to accelerate the allocation of budgetary funds and form physical workload. The supplement of the overall revenue and expenditure gap is not the current core contradiction. This year's broad fiscal budget is relatively sufficient, the growth rate of budgetary expenditure is at a higher level in recent years, and a large proportion of funds come from past carry over balances and profits handed over by specific financial institutions, which forms a strong support for the advance of expenditure; If we consider the funds that have been allocated and "lying" in the accounts of state-owned enterprises, there are more funds actually available. The top priority is to increase the guarantee of people's livelihood and stable employment, accelerate the resumption of projects and hedge the contraction of demand.
Risk tip: the policy effect is less than expected, and the epidemic situation is repeated.
