Abstract: since late April, the global epidemic has continued to fall to a low level, and the industrial chain in Southeast Asia and other regions has accelerated the recovery. The war between Russia and Ukraine continues, the global energy and food prices fluctuate at a high level, and the inflationary pressure in developed economies continues to increase. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50bp and announced the path of table contraction. The "Hawk" action was slightly less than expected. The 10-year high US bond yield fluctuated, and the US dollar continued to rise. The period of sharp rise in US bond yields has passed. Driven by the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve, both US bond yields and the US dollar are expected to rise slightly in the short term. As the terminal inflationary pressure in the euro area increases, does the European Central Bank begin to consider tightening policies? However, the impact of the Russian Ukrainian war on the euro area economy continues to appear, so the euro has weakened, and the short-term support is still weak. The Bank of England raised interest rates again, but high inflation and the war between Russia and Ukraine made its economic outlook decline sharply, the pound fell more, and the short-term shock is expected to weaken. The Central Bank of Japan maintained substantial easing, but the US Japan interest rate spread tended to fluctuate sharply, and the yen fluctuated slightly. Under the background that it is difficult for the US Japan interest rate spread to rise significantly, the yen may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Shanghai continued to block, China's export growth fell sharply, and the continued upside down of the interest rate gap between China and the United States led to the continuous outflow of foreign capital. Therefore, the RMB continued to depreciate significantly. Exports and interest rate differentials are still unfavorable to the RMB in the short term, but with most of the depreciation pressure released and regulators began to show a stable attitude, the RMB may depreciate slightly in the short term.
Key words: covid-19 epidemic situation; Federal Reserve; increase interest; Inflationary pressure; exchange rate
