Core view
The demand for thermal coal returns to temperature, and the overall coal price maintains stable operation. Recently, the demand for downstream cement and chemical industry has gradually rebounded, the procurement of trade users and end customers is active, and the inquiry for goods and prices at the port is active. In terms of policy, the financial support for the rescue of coal and power enterprises and the support for the clean development and utilization of coal have been increased. With the promotion of resumption of work and production and the gradual end of the off-season in summer, the demand for power coal has gradually warmed up; In terms of supply, the market sales of power coal in the main production areas have improved, and the supply of some high-quality coal sources is tight. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, the transportation capacity has gradually recovered. On May 10, the national development and Reform Commission and other four departments requested that in order to further ensure basic power consumption, we should speed up the exploration and development of oil, gas, minerals and other resources, but the production capacity release time is long and the short-term supply is not loose; The imported coal market is still depressed, the upside down situation of Indonesian coal continues, the price of medium and high calorie coal in Russia is basically the same as that in the Bohai Sea port, and the transaction of imported coal is difficult. On the whole, the demand for thermal coal is strongly supported. At present, the supply in the off-season is still tight in the short term. Since the implementation of the post holiday price limit policy, the coal price has maintained stable operation as a whole, waiting for the gradual release of demand after the off-season, and is optimistic about the future market as a whole.
The coking coal market has weakened recently, and the rebound in demand will drive profits in the new stage. In terms of coking coal, the demand of steel mills has decreased recently. Most coke enterprises focus on purchasing on demand and digesting inventory. The structure of coke supply and demand has become loose, the inventory has increased slightly, and the demand for coking coal has weakened periodically. Generally speaking, there is no obvious increase in output. In addition, according to the latest Mongolian customs statistics, Mongolia exported 3.4474 million tons of coal to China from January to April 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 49.91%, The overall supply and demand of coking coal market is weak. At present, two rounds of coke price reduction have been fully implemented, with a cumulative decline of 400 yuan / ton. The recent price correction of main coking coal market is obvious, but the tight supply and demand pattern has not fundamentally changed. After the two rounds of coke price reduction, many coke enterprises in the producing area started at a high level, and the operating rate of steel mills also increased. In the future, with the continuous implementation of policies for stable economic growth and the rapid promotion of resumption of work and production all over the country, the demand for coking coal is expected to start a high growth rate. This round of price limit has little impact on the coking coal market. After the recent substantial price adjustment, the price of coking coal is expected to stabilize rapidly and the supply and demand will continue to be tight, Continue to recommend coking coal market.
Coal policy support measures continue to ensure supply and price stability, and promote the stable operation of the market. Premier Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council on May 11, which pointed out the need to ensure energy supply. On the basis of early support, another 50 billion yuan of renewable energy subsidies will be allocated to central power generation enterprises, and 10 billion yuan will be injected through the state-owned capital operation budget to support the rescue of coal power enterprises and more power generation. We should optimize policies and release advanced coal production capacity in a safe and orderly manner. It is not allowed to switch off and limit power. The national development and Reform Commission and other four departments issued the notice on the key work of cost reduction in 2022 on May 10, proposing to continue to ensure the supply and price of energy and important raw materials, so as to ensure the people’s livelihood and the normal production and operation of enterprises. We will strengthen China’s capacity to guarantee resource production, accelerate the exploration and development of oil, gas, minerals and other resources, and ensure the supply of primary products.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) .
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, downturn risk on the demand side, and coal policy is less than expected.
