Key investment points
The impact of the epidemic disturbance is prominent, and the investment side is weakened as a whole. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to April of 22 years, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 15.4 trillion, yoy + 6.8% (the former value was + 9.3%); Yoy + 1.8% in April alone, with a quarter on quarter growth rate of - 0.8%. From January to April, the investment in infrastructure (excluding electricity) was yoy + 6.5% (previous value + 8.5%), of which the investment in water conservancy management industry was yoy + 12.0% (previous value + 10.0%), the investment in public facilities management industry was yoy + 7.1% (previous value + 8.1%), the investment in road transportation industry was yoy + 0.4% (previous value + 3.6%), and the investment in railway transportation industry was yoy-7.0% (previous value - 2.9%). The investment growth rate in Q1 was limited, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment was not improved year-on-year. With the gradual elimination of the disturbance of the epidemic, the follow-up investment side is expected to strengthen efforts to repair the impact of the epidemic under the pressure of steady growth. In addition, at the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission recently, the general secretary stressed the need to comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction and build a modern infrastructure system, which pointed out the need to strengthen the construction of network infrastructure such as transportation, energy and water conservancy. We believe that this meeting has set the tone that infrastructure will continue to work as an important starting point for stabilizing the economy in the medium term.
Real estate demand continued to be weak, and new construction fell sharply. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the national investment in real estate development from January to April of 22 years was 3.9 trillion, yoy-2.7%, and yoy-10.1% in April alone; The land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises is 17.66 million square meters, yoy-46.5%, yoy-57.3% in April alone; The land transaction price was 95.5 billion yuan, yoy-20.6%, yoy-28.3% in April alone; The cumulative sales area of commercial housing is 400 million square meters, yoy-20.9%, yoy-39.0% in April alone; The new construction area of houses is 400 million square meters, yoy-26.3%, yoy-44.2% in April alone; The housing construction area was 8.19 billion square meters, the same year-on-year, yoy-38.7% in April alone; The completed housing area is 200 million square meters, yoy-11.9%, yoy-14.2% in April alone. In addition, from the capital side, the funds paid in by real estate development enterprises from January to April of 22 years were 4.9 trillion, yoy-23.6%. In terms of splitting, yoy of Chinese loans / utilization of foreign capital / self raised funds / deposit and advance collection / personal mortgage loans were - 24.4% / + 129.4% / - 5.2% / - 37.0% / - 25.1% respectively. Although the recent marginal easing measures of real estate policy have been continuously launched, under the influence of the spread of the epidemic, the real estate demand still shows a downturn trend, the decline at the start and construction ends continues to expand, the land market is further lower, and the decline in completion is narrowed, which may be caused by the low base in the same period last year. On May 15, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice to lower the lower limit of interest rate for the first set of ordinary self housing loans to lpr-20bp, and the lower limit of interest rate for the second set of housing remained unchanged, and encouraged all localities to independently determine the applicable interest rate due to urban policies. This reduction is expected to open the space for policy stimulus, solve the real estate dilemma from the demand side, and promote the gradual improvement of the marginal climate.
The decline of cement output expanded, and the price still increased year-on-year. From January to April of 22 years, the cumulative output of cement in China was 580 million tons, yoy-14.8%; The output in April alone was 190 million tons, yoy-19.5%. In April, the cement output failed to continue the narrowing trend of the decline in the previous month, mainly due to the recent multi-point outbreak of the epidemic, which affected the commencement of the project and the logistics and transportation, making the cement show the characteristics of "not flourishing in the peak season". Considering that Shanghai and other places have recently achieved social clearance, some enterprises have gradually returned to work and production. Although the recovery of cement demand is delayed, the policy stimulus is expected to increase under the pressure of stable growth after the epidemic, and the subsequent demand pressure is expected to ease. According to the digital cement network, as of the end of April, the national p.o42 5. The average price of cement is 493 yuan / ton, which is - 5 yuan / ton month on month and + 39 yuan / ton year on year. In the current month, the price fell slightly under the pressure of demand, but it still increased year-on-year. Considering that the peak staggering intensity is stronger this year (the peak staggering in many provinces is increased by 10-25 days compared with last year), the post epidemic demand repair is expected to bring price elasticity.
The growth rate of glass production in a single month turned negative, and the price continued to fall in the short term. From January to April of 22, the national output of flat glass was 339.08 million weight boxes, yoy + 0.7%, and the output of single April was 85.64 million weight boxes, yoy-0.8%. The growth rate of single month glass output turned negative. According to Zhuo Chuang information, as of the end of April, the national average price of float glass was 2018 yuan / ton, with a month-on-month increase of - 8.3% and a year-on-year increase of - 12.5%. Glass prices fell in the early stage, and in the short term, it is still dominated by digesting inventory. We believe that under the "guaranteed delivery" of real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to continue to maintain; On the supply side, considering that the capacity utilization rate of the industry is at a high level, the subsequent new capacity is limited, and at present, the proportion of kiln age capacity of 8-10 years / 10-12 years / more in the production line is 13.2% / 8.3% / 5.9% respectively. Cold repair of the old production line may lead to supply contraction. We expect the glass price to remain at a good level throughout the year.
Investment suggestion: at the current time, we suggest paying attention to several main lines of building materials & new materials investment. First, the prosperity and performance fulfillment should be selected from carbon fiber, quartz sand and glass fiber industries; Second, the marginal improvement of real estate policy, focusing on the layout of brand building materials; Third, cement and water reducing agent are selected for the main line of steady growth; Fourth, at the bottom of the photovoltaic glass industry cycle, with the support of cost, the industry basically has no downside risk; Float glass prices stabilized and rebounded while demand boosted. 1) In the field of new materials, the "limited overseas supply", the explosion of demand in new energy fields such as wind, light and hydrogen downstream of carbon fiber, and China's leading "grinding a sword in ten years"; Domestic leaders have finished catching up. In the future, capacity expansion and cost reduction will lead to surpassing in the civil field; In addition, we believe that the business continuity in the field of small and medium-sized tow is high, and the supply and demand pattern of precursor will be better than that of carbon fiber. High purity quartz sand / electronic cover glass ushered in the industrial opportunity of high demand increase + domestic alternative resonance, and UTG welcomed the outbreak of demand. 2) The glass fiber cycle is weakened, the roving boom is expected to continue (wind power, automobile, export, etc. bring strong support to the demand), the bottom of the price of electronic cloth has appeared, which is expected to continue to pick up, and the current safety margin is high. 3) The layout of brand building materials is at the right time. Since the second half of the year, the valuation and performance of brand building materials have been killed under weak demand + capital pressure + high cost. In the absence of significant improvement in real estate fundamentals, the policy continued to relax expectations, the credit risk faced by the real estate chain and the pessimistic expectation of market demand were repaired, and the sector rebounded as a whole. According to the historical resumption, the end of the general real estate policy corresponds to the end of the valuation of brand building materials. The end of this round of policy / valuation appears in 21q4. We expect the end of fundamentals to appear in 22h1. 4) The cost performance of cement allocation is high. The infrastructure development force and the marginal recovery of real estate under steady growth are expected to support the cement demand to maintain a high platform. However, the further coordination and optimization of cement core logic at the supply side in 22 years has generally strengthened the scope and intensity of peak staggering this year than last year, superimposing the high price center to maintain profitability and toughness. 5) From the perspective of water reducing agent, capital construction pull + gross profit margin rise + functional materials open up growth space. 6) The bottom price of photovoltaic glass is still upward flexible. The price continues to rise this week. We are optimistic about the adverse expansion and cost competitiveness of leading enterprises, and focus on the profit elasticity and long-term growth brought by the expansion of traditional glass into the field of photovoltaic glass; The price of float glass has been adjusted at a low level, and the price is expected to stabilize and recover with the gradual recovery of demand.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; The price of raw materials has risen sharply; Policy fluctuation risk; Risk of poor capital turnover of 2B end enterprises.
