Review of the securities industry: the securities index fell 19.22% in the first quarter, underperforming the main indexes. In the first quarter of 2022, overseas geopolitical conflicts continued, the epidemic spread in many places, and the internal recovery was uneven. The superposition of multiple factors led to the continuous decline of the stock market. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 10.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 18.44%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 14.53%, and the securities II (Shenwan) index fell 19.22%. The current Pb valuation of the industry is as low as 1.25 times, at the historical level of 5.18% in the past 10 years, at an absolute low. Tracking the operating performance of listed securities companies: in 2021, the operating revenue of listed securities companies was + 23% year-on-year, and the net profit was + 29% year-on-year. Affected by the market decline, the profitability of listed securities companies declined as a whole in the first quarter, with revenue down 29% and net profit down 46% year-on-year. By splitting the business lines, the listed securities companies accounted for 31.10%, 14.34%, 11.63%, 13.80% and – 2.5% of the net income from brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest and investment in the quarter 20222022, respectively 18%: net income from brokerage, investment banking, asset management and interest, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.06%, 14.95%, – 2% and – 7.7% 72%, investment income from profit to loss.
In the first quarter, the securities business segment tracked: (1) brokerage business: the turnover and the number of new accounts fell, and the new development fund was cold. (2) Investment banking: the scale of IPO and bond underwriting increased, and the scale of refinancing decreased. The IPO issuance scale CR3 (CITIC, CICC, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) ) is 55.57%, Cr5 is 70.79%, cRIO is 85.48% and Cr20 is 94.49%. (3) Asset management business: the scale of asset management has reached the bottom, and the proportion of active management has been increasing. At the end of 2021, the asset management scale of securities companies totaled 823518 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of -3.5% 7%, which is slower than the average annual decline of 20% in the previous three years, and the proportion of collective asset management scale representing active management continues to increase. Affected by the market downturn in the first quarter of 2022, the growth rate of actively managed collective asset management scale may slow down, but the long-term trend of structural optimization and active management capability transformation remains unchanged. (4) Investment business: affected by market fluctuations, the income from directional self operated investment fell. The stock market generally showed a downward trend. Directional exposures such as follow-up investment of science and Innovation Board increased the current fluctuation, and a few heads effectively resisted market fluctuations with non directional investment. (5) Credit business: the balance of the two financial institutions continued to decline, and the stock pledge remained under pressure. In 2021, listed securities companies withdrew 10.5 billion yuan of impairment losses, a year-on-year decrease of 68%. 22q1 listed securities companies reversed 200 million yuan of impairment, and the asset quality of securities companies was gradually consolidated.
Investment suggestion: the performance differentiation is intensified and the valuation is low. The market fluctuated downward and the proprietary business was under pressure, resulting in a double drop in the revenue and net profit of most securities companies, including China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) and other large securities companies. However, China stock market news and Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) reflect certain counter cyclical. China stock market news benefits from its unique asset light business model of Internet securities companies. Although the consignment of fund business is cold, the securities brokerage and two financial services have made great efforts to maintain the positive growth of the company’s performance Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) is more profitable in terms of anti risk fluctuation and structural market with its excellent derivatives business, which is relatively less affected by market adjustment. At present, the Pb of securities II (Shenwan) index is 1.25 times, which is at the historical level of 5.18% in recent 10 years. The market’s concern about the pressure on the performance of securities companies in the first quarter has been released. In the future, with the recovery of the market and the implementation of the comprehensive registration system, the securities companies sector will usher in Davis double click. The current point has great configuration value. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leader Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Internet characteristic securities company China stock market news.
Risk tips: the macro economy has fallen sharply, the capital market reform is less than expected, and the covid-19 epidemic has been repeated.
