Overall, yesterday's stocks fell more or less, more than 3200 stocks fell, and the number of falling stocks in the two cities increased significantly in the afternoon. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1093.5 billion, 32.4 billion compared with the previous trading day. On the disk, prefabricated dishes, hotels, digital currency, unmanned retail, coal and other sectors rose at the forefront. Saline Lake's lithium extraction, Chinese medicine, medicine, electricity, Baijiu, new tobacco and other plates are among the top. As of yesterday's close, the Shanghai index fell 1.17%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.96% and the gem index fell 1.71%. The net outflow of funds from the North throughout the day was 585 million yuan, including a net inflow of 1.454 billion yuan from the Shanghai Stock connect and a net outflow of 2.04 billion yuan from the Shenzhen Stock connect.
The three major US stock indexes collectively closed lower, with the NASDAQ down 2.51% and the Dow down 0.49%; The S & P 500 index fell 1.42% to its lowest level since December 21. Large technology stocks fell, Tesla fell more than 6%, NVIDIA fell more than 5%, Microsoft fell more than 4%, Amazon and meta platform fell more than 2%. Popular Chinese concept stocks fell collectively, BiliBili fell more than 10%, Didi fell more than 6%, and Alibaba, Netease and pinduoduo fell more than 4%. Asset management giant TPG capital closed up 15.25% on the first day of listing.
At today's morning meeting of securities companies, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that the market adjustment may be coming to an end, and the transaction amount of the two cities is less than 900 billion or will usher in a relatively safe bottom; In terms of plate opportunities, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that major projects are intensively started, and infrastructure investment may make a good start; China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) proposed that A-Shares enter the annual report forecast period to explore annual report opportunities under the background of weak market.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : the adjustment may have come to an end. The transaction amount of the two cities is less than 900 billion or will usher in a relatively safe bottom
to what extent is the reduction or the end of the adjustment can be confirmed? timing system signal shows that the average distance is 2.24%, lower than the threshold of 3%, and the market continues to be in a volatile pattern. The core driving variable is the measurement index of risk preference. As for the factors that influence short-term risk preference, the market is now at the end of the adjustment or coming from the macro events and price volume outside China. But it is still necessary to wait for the shrinkage of the transaction volume to confirm that the two cities are expected to have less than 900 billion of the transaction volume or will have a relatively safe base.
In terms of long-term industry configuration, according to the analysts' profit forecast and looking forward to the prosperity of the industry in 2022, the industries with the highest profit growth are new energy power systems, tourism, agriculture and special machinery; According to the signal data of the mid cycle Tianfeng quantitative two beta medium-term industry selection model, the model conclusion in November shows that the interest rate is in the defined downward stage and the economy is in the defined downward stage. It is recommended to pay attention to consumption and technology in industry configuration; Therefore, the comprehensive time window focuses on the allocation of new energy power systems, agriculture, tourism and special machinery, pays attention to the oversold rebound opportunity of medicine and new energy sectors in the short term, and takes wind all a as the main body of stock allocation. The recommended position of absolute return products is 60%.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : intensive construction of major projects, infrastructure investment or a good start
In the first week of 2022, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Henan, Anhui and other places held a centralized commencement ceremony or mobilization meeting for major project construction to announce the investment data and investment direction of key projects in 2022. Guangdong, Shandong, Hebei and other places have also recently announced investment plans for key projects in the new year, with a scale of hundreds of billions. In terms of investment direction of major projects, traditional infrastructure construction represented by rail transit, energy and water conservancy still occupies an important position. At the same time, new energy, new materials, intelligent manufacturing, education, environmental protection, public health and other fields are also key layout directions.
It is expected that in 2022, new and old infrastructure is expected to work together to inject strong impetus into steady growth, promoting development, ensuring employment and benefiting people's livelihood.
CICC: A shares enter the forecast period of the annual report. Which companies are expected to outperform expectations?
The release period of annual performance forecast of A-Shares began in January. Analysts' performance outlook shows that the proportion of industries in which the annual report may exceed expectations is not high, focusing on the structural opportunities in subdivided areas. By structure:
1) mid and upper cycle industry: Although the overall growth rate is high and the profit is still under repair, the market expectation is relatively sufficient. The sub fields with expected performance can focus on integrated oil companies, oil service and engineering companies in oil and gas, magnetic materials, aluminum processing and lithium in non-ferrous metals, pesticides, ordinary carbon steel, special steel and cement.
2) midstream sector: analysts generally expect that it is relatively sufficient and the profit has not been significantly revised, but the performance outlook of relevant industries in 2022 is generally positive, and the areas that can be concerned include new energy, aeroengine and transportation logistics.
3) downstream consumption: the profit has been continuously revised since the fourth quarter of last year, and the outlook for analysts is generally neutral or negative. Alcohol is one of the few areas where fundamentals remain strong, focusing on high-end Baijiu, auto parts and upstream textile manufacturing.
4) TMT field: the performance expectation of the annual report may be sufficient, but the analysts' performance outlook for 2022 is positive. They can pay attention to VR assembly, folding screen, terminal brand, etc. in consumer electronics, as well as the software fields related to artificial intelligence and medical informatization.
5) financial real estate: the market has fully expected banking and real estate, but the high prosperity of the capital market in the fourth quarter is conducive to the business development of the securities industry, and it is expected to achieve high profit growth in the fourth quarter.
6) some industries with reversal expectations: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, transportation and logistics may be on the left side of the cycle. The decline of pig production capacity in 2022 is expected to stabilize pig prices, focusing on pig and seed production opportunities; At the same time, the gradual weakening of the impact of the epidemic also means that the early damaged fields such as airports and logistics are expected to usher in a cycle reversal, and analysts hold a positive attitude towards the future performance outlook of the industry.
