Sales of top 100 real estate enterprises: sales continued to be depressed, and the year-on-year decline expanded again. From January to April, the total sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises reached 3778.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.5%, an increase of 6.8 PCT over the previous month, mainly due to the continuous epidemic in April and the impact of the high base in the same period in 2021.
Financing: the issuance scale of real estate enterprise bonds increased year-on-year and month on month, and bond financing continued to pick up. In April 2022, the domestic and foreign financing of real estate enterprises was 107.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5% and a month on month increase of 13%, including 52.396 billion yuan of domestic bonds, a year-on-year decrease of 26%, 54.7 billion yuan of overseas bonds, a year-on-year increase of 169%, and the scale of overseas bonds was greatly improved. In terms of domestic bonds, the scale of ABS and ultra short-term financing expanded, the issuance of general medium-term notes and directional instruments decreased compared with the previous month, the overall financing of domestic bonds improved significantly compared with the second half of last year, and the corporate financing side improved.
The business environment of the industry has improved, and the loose policy continues. With the increasing implementation of urban policies and the gradual improvement of the energy level of urban relaxation, it may become an inevitable trend for the real estate market to stabilize and warm up. 1. Real estate investment and housing consumption are still important pillars of the economy. The policy environment of the follow-up real estate industry this year will be very friendly and will continue in the short term; 2. At present, the degree of foam in the real estate market is relatively low. In the past, some overly strict control policies have completed their historical mission, and will continue to withdraw from the market. At the same time, in order to prevent speculation, investment and other restrictions and costs at the real estate trading port will also be lifted and reduced; 3. It is urgent to resolve the risks of the industry, and the profit margin of the industry will be gradually restored this year. Since the current round of regulation easing cycle, the Shenwan real estate index has increased by only 10.0%, and the current round of regulation policy easing and the space for mortgage interest rate downward have far exceeded the two rounds of small cycles in 2018 and 2020. Superimposed with the benefits of the real estate industry brought by the central bank’s RRR reduction, it is expected that the market of the real estate sector will continue to deduce. At the current time point, we suggest paying attention to the large state-owned enterprises that can continue to expand their tables and maintain national expansion, such as poly real estate, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , CNOOC real estate, China Resources Land, and regional leaders with obvious regional advantages and can realize differentiated competition, such as Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Xuhui holding, Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , etc. In terms of property sector, it is suggested to pay attention to Jinke service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, country garden service and China Resources Vientiane life with strong independence, external expansion and value-added services and continuous expansion ability.
Risk factors: policy risk: the progress of policy relaxation is less than expected, and the policy regulation of real estate tax and pre-sale funds is more than expected. Market risk: the decline of sales in the real estate industry exceeded expectations.
