1. Which agricultural stocks are heavily held by 2022q1 active partial equity funds?
1) the agricultural sector has received a substantial increase in capital holdings, and there is still room for additional allocation: the proportion of heavy positions and over allocation of funds in 2022q1 are 2.2% and 0.48% respectively, accounting for 70.7% and 73.2% of the historical quantile, with obvious room for increase.
2) from the perspective of track segmentation, the breeding and feed sectors have attracted more attention: in the breeding sector, the cyclical characteristics of fund allocation are obvious, and there is a large upward elasticity at the current time point; In the feed sector, the periodicity of fund allocation is slightly weaker than that in the breeding sector, and the proportion of heavy fund positions has increased significantly in recent ten years. In addition, the market attention of the planting sector is also increasing.
3) pig raising sector: significant oversupply and high market attention. Among them, the capital allocation proportion of pig leading stocks is high. The market value of Wenshi and muyuan accounts for 58.6% of the total market value in the pig raising sector. However, considering that the historical quantiles of their over allocation proportion are 85.7% and 69.1% respectively, they do not exceed the historical quantile level of the sector, and there is still an additional allocation space. Medium and small cap stocks with high elasticity have attracted more attention, and many indicators are at the historical quantile high. For example, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , COFCO Jiakang, Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , etc. have received more attention, and the total market value of heavy positions accounts for 24.5%. With the exception of tianbang (more than 85%), the historical quantile of the heavy position proportion and over allocation proportion of individual stocks is more than 90%, which is at the high point of the historical quantile.
2. Breeding industry chain: the layout cycle and boom logic remain unchanged!
1) pig production capacity has been significantly reduced, and the expectation of pig price reversal has been strengthened. The losses of pig breeding are serious, and most of them have lasted for more than half a year. The clearing range of real production capacity is considerable. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, it is estimated that it has continued to decline for several months since the peak in June 2021, with a cumulative decline of 8%; Yongyi data show that the number of sows that can be bred in its sample has decreased continuously month on month from June last year to this year, and the cumulative degree of decontamination has exceeded 10%. We believe that the inflection point of pig marketing brought about by the change of energy breeding stock is downward, the supply and demand of pig breeding sector is expected to gradually improve from loose to tight, the reversal of pig price is expected to be upward, and the periodic investment logic of pig sector remains unchanged.
2) investment suggestions: from the perspective of average market value, corresponding to the estimated sales volume in 2023. From the current average market value of listed companies, including Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 41004200 yuan / head Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) 20 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) yuan / head New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) 15002000 yuan / head Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) is less than 1500 yuan / head, and the market value of many stocks is at the bottom of history; From the perspective of price to book ratio, except Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , most companies are also at the bottom of history. (data as of May 17)
The related targets are: [ Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) \ ], [COFCO jiajiakang], [ Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) ], [ Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) ], etc.
