The high prosperity of the power device industry continues, the products are upgraded rapidly, and the opportunities for domestic substitution are brewing. The global energy reform has driven the rapid increase of downstream demand for new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and wind power, and the high boom of power semiconductors continues. 1q22 Infineon, Italian French semiconductor and other overseas leaders have successively issued price increase letters. The delivery cycle of Infineon power devices has climbed to 65 weeks, reaching the highest level since 2020, highlighting the high prosperity of the industry.
At present, the localization rate of power devices in China is still at a low level, and the revenue of major listed companies in China accounted for only 22% in 2021. At present, power devices are continuously upgrading and iterating. The localization rate of high-end devices such as IGBT and SiC is lower, the growth rate is faster, and the domestic substitution opportunities are highlighted.
By 2025, China's IGBT market space is expected to reach 59.1 billion yuan, and Chinese manufacturers will catch up quickly. The market space of IGBT in power devices is second only to MOSFET, with the fastest growth and low localization rate. The gap between Chinese and foreign manufacturers is rapidly narrowing, so it has excellent industrial prospects. According to our calculation, by 2025, China's IGBT market space is expected to reach 59.1 billion yuan, of which the market space in the fields of new energy vehicles, wind / light / energy storage, industrial control and household appliances are 23.1 billion yuan, 18.3 billion yuan, 8.5 billion yuan and 6.6 billion yuan respectively. New energy is expected to become the industry with the largest proportion and the fastest growth in the downstream application field of IGBT. At the same time, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power and other fields have become the "battleground" for power device manufacturers because of the high power and stability requirements for IGBT products, and the gross profit margin is higher than that in the field of industrial control and household appliances.
In terms of progress, manufacturers such as Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) and other IGBT products have achieved mass production in the field of new energy vehicles; Leading manufacturers have also achieved batch shipments in the fields of photovoltaic and wind power, and their performance is expected to grow rapidly.
Pay attention to the high-end products of Chinese manufacturers, the optimization of downstream application fields and the upgrading of wafer production line. In addition to the boom of the industry, Chinese manufacturers are experiencing several important changes:
1) high end product structure: in the MOS field, the revenue of superjunction and shielded gate MOS devices of manufacturers such as Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) etc. has increased rapidly; In terms of IGBT and SiC, at present, Chinese manufacturers Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) and other manufacturers are constantly promoting the rhythm of product development and upgrading, and the performance of high-end products has been able to match the overseas leaders.
2) continuous optimization of downstream market: the demand for new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and wind power is growing rapidly, with high performance requirements and relatively good competition pattern. At present, the shortage of goods in the industry is accelerating the breakthrough of Chinese power device manufacturers to the new energy market, and the increase of the proportion of new energy revenue will also promote the accelerated growth of manufacturers' performance.
3) upgrading of wafer production line to large scale: compared with 6-inch and 8-inch wafer production lines, 12 inch wafer production lines have lower cost, better process and better product performance. At present, China Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) and other manufacturers have laid out 12 inch production capacity. Other fabless manufacturers also accelerate product and process development based on the 12 inch platform. The upgrading of wafer production line is expected to further promote the cost optimization of manufacturers, Product performance improvement.
Investment suggestion: at present, the power device industry continues to have a high outlook, the performance of industry companies is growing rapidly, and the growth ceiling of power device manufacturers is constantly opening in the process of product upgrading and downstream structure optimization. In terms of valuation, the power track has entered the position of both attack and defense after adjustment, focusing on the investment opportunities of the power track. It is suggested to pay attention to: Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) , Dongwei semiconductor, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) and other high-quality domestic power device manufacturers.
Risk tip: the risk of slowing down the growth of downstream demand; The pace of capacity expansion is less than the expected risk; Risk of deterioration of industry competition pattern.
