In the first quarter of 2022, the negative impact of covid-19 pneumonia on the transportation industry continued, the passenger travel demand was sluggish, and the recovery of railway and civil aviation passenger transport was still less than expected. The cargo business of civil aviation and railway is recovering well, but we need to pay attention to the impact of the normative policies issued by the Civil Aviation Administration on the change of cabin configuration and loading of goods on the business of airlines. In terms of shipping, affected by the epidemic and port congestion, China's export container index remained high. China's demand for raw materials such as iron ore and coal led to an increase in the freight rate of imported dry bulk cargo, and geopolitical conflicts led to a significant increase in the freight rate of crude oil. In the short term, the epidemic still has intermittent and regional recurrence, and there is still great uncertainty about the recovery of transportation demand affected by the epidemic control. Considering the significant impact of the epidemic on the operation and solvency of air transport enterprises, and the adverse impact of the low demand for international routes will continue, maintain the rating outlook of the air transport industry as negative, and continue to pay attention to air transport enterprises with large short-term debt scale, insufficient book capital reserves and limited external support.
I. policy environment
In December 2021, the Civil Aviation Administration revised and reissued the cabin loaded cargo transportation (Second Edition), which made provisions on cabin configuration change, cargo loading and cargo safety, which stipulated that civil aircraft are not allowed to load cargo on the cabin floor by changing the cabin configuration (i.e. "passenger modified cargo"), and airlines that have changed the cabin configuration for relevant operations need to restore the cabin configuration before June 28, 2022.
The second edition of cargo transportation in cabin focuses on safety and is valid from January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022. If the passenger compartment has a different configuration (i.e. the passenger compartment is not allowed to load all the seats in the first compartment) or the cargo in the third compartment is not allowed to be removed; Second, airlines should conduct a full risk assessment of the goods loaded in the cabin, establish a white list system of goods and a white list system of shippers (and agents), and clarify the names of goods that can be carried in the cabin and the shippers (and agents) involved; Third, for airlines that have changed the cabin configuration to carry out relevant operations, the cabin configuration needs to be restored before June 28, 2022.
In February 2022, the State Council issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, which introduced relief and support measures in terms of taxes, subsidies and financing for the highway, waterway and railway transportation industry and civil aviation industry.
In February 2022, the State Council issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, stipulating that the advance payment of value-added tax by railway transportation enterprises and air transportation enterprises shall be suspended for one year. At the same time, for highway, waterway and railway transportation enterprises, financial institutions are encouraged to increase financing support for transportation enterprises with high credit rating and heavy tasks of epidemic prevention and control and emergency transportation according to the principle of marketization; Encourage qualified transportation enterprises to issue corporate credit bonds. For the civil aviation industry, local governments can coordinate the central to local transfer payments and local self owned financial resources according to actual needs, and support airlines and airports to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control; Study, coordinate and promote China Aviation Fuel Group Co., Ltd. to negotiate with upstream enterprises to cancel the marine transportation premium (US $2 / barrel), port fee (50 yuan / ton) and other expenses included in the price of aviation kerosene; Encourage qualified airlines to issue corporate credit bonds, and establish a green channel for airlines and civil aviation airports seriously affected by the epidemic to register and issue debt financing instruments.
II. Industry operation
1. Air transport industry
Affected by the repeated epidemic situation and the "3.21" crash, the recovery of passenger turnover of civil aviation in China was less than expected; The adverse impact of the spread of overseas epidemic on international routes continues; The recovery of civil aviation cargo and mail business is good, and the cargo and mail turnover has exceeded the pre epidemic level. However, considering the normative policies issued by the Civil Aviation Administration on "changing passengers to goods", some civil aviation cargo capacity may return to passenger transport, and the pressure on civil aviation cargo capacity will further aggravate the competition of passenger routes.
From January to February 2022, China's civil aviation passenger transport turnover was 94.045 billion person kilometers, an increase of 17.24% over the same period last year and 49.03% over the same period in 2019.
In terms of Chinese routes, in the first quarter, affected by the repeated epidemic situation and the policy of "internal defense rebound", the number of flights of Chinese routes in the civil aviation industry recovered less than expected. Specifically, from January to February, the passenger transport turnover of China's routes increased by 17.96% year-on-year. However, due to repeated outbreaks in Hong Kong, Suzhou and Hohhot, the passenger transport turnover of China's routes has not yet returned to the pre epidemic level, equivalent to 66.23% in the same period in 2019; In March, the epidemic broke out in Jilin, Shanghai and other places, and the number of newly confirmed cases in China surged. Superimposed on the adverse impact of the "3.21" crash on the civil aviation industry, some flights were cancelled, the capacity of major airlines' Chinese routes was reduced, and the seating rate decreased.
In terms of international routes, the adverse impact of the spread of overseas epidemic on international routes continues. The Civil Aviation Administration of China still strictly controls international flights. Affected by the "foreign defense import" policy, the passenger turnover of international flights has further decreased. From January to February 2022, the passenger traffic turnover of China's civil aviation international routes was 990 million person kilometers, a decrease of 25.56% over the same period of last year and 1.93% over the same period of 2019. The long-term downturn of international routes has led Air China to invest the capacity of international routes in Chinese routes, which continues to intensify the industry competition.
In terms of cargo and mail transportation, from January to February 2022, the turnover of civil aviation cargo and mail was 4.376 billion ton kilometers, an increase of 2.48% over the same period of last year, equivalent to 121.35% in the same period of 2019. The civil aviation cargo and mail transportation business is stable, so we need to pay attention to the impact of the normative policies issued by the Civil Aviation Administration on the "passenger to cargo" on the airline business. Figure 3 cumulative value of civil aviation passenger turnover and cumulative year-on-year Figure 4 cumulative value of civil aviation cargo and mail turnover and cumulative year-on-year data source: wind, joint credit collation data source: wind, joint credit collation
2. Railway transportation industry
From January to February 2022, the railway passenger volume increased compared with the same period of last year; The freight volume in the same period was relatively stable, exceeding the pre epidemic level.
From January to February 2022, the railway passenger volume totaled 369 million person times, an increase of 22.95% over the same period, 64.27% over the same period in 2019. In terms of freight transportation, the railway freight volume from January to February totaled 780 million tons, with little change over the same period of the previous year, 117.22% of the same period in 2019, exceeding the pre epidemic level.
