Key points:
In the past two weeks (from May 2 to May 13), the market V-shaped reversal, and the electronics industry hit the bottom and rebounded
In the past two weeks (05.02-05.13), the market continued to reverse in a V-shape. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and gem index rose by 1.22%, 1.26% and 1.68% respectively, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by 0.69%. From the perspective of Shenwan tertiary industry, the electronics industry rose in an all-round way, and the semiconductor materials, brand consumer electronics and led sectors increased significantly, accounting for 9.26%, 8.00% and 7.86% respectively. As of May 13, the P / E ratio of Shenwan electronics industry (TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) was 25.65 times, at the bottom of history, and the valuations of each subdivided industry were at the bottom of history.
Industry high frequency data tracking: TV panel fell to cash cost price, and it panel price continued to fall
Many sizes of TV panels have fallen to the cash cost price, but due to the poor terminal demand, the production reduction range of panel factories is limited, and the pressure of oversupply is still large, resulting in the expansion of the decline in the price of TV panels in May. It panel is in the traditional off-season, and the price continues to fall.
According to IDC, in the first quarter of 2022, China's smartphone shipments fell by 14.1% to 74.2 million units, mainly due to higher sales in the same period last year. As the Chinese epidemic has affected consumers' consumption sentiment, the uncertain prospect of some overseas key markets and the continuous high cost of core components have led many mobile phone manufacturers to adopt more stable and conservative operation strategies. These factors will continue to impact the performance of China's mobile phone market. If there is no additional positive stimulus, the capacity of China's smartphone market may fall below the 300 million mark in 2022.
This week's view: Shanghai will promote comprehensive production resumption in stages and pay attention to the progress of enterprise production resumption
Since March, Shanghai has adopted zoning control, and Kunshan, an important electronic production town close to Shanghai, has also been affected. Shanghai and Kunshan are important cities in the global electronic industry, involving the electronic industry, including ODM, panel, PCB, connector, etc. Under the situation that the manpower and logistics are controlled and the transportation is almost stopped, the OEM and ODM factories in Shanghai and surrounding areas can only rely on the in plant inventory to meet the production line demand at a low level, and the problem of long and short materials is further exacerbated.
The measures to seal and control the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta have seriously affected the normal operation of the electronic supply chain, causing relevant enterprises to stop production or reduce load production. With the gradual resumption of work and production in the Yangtze River Delta, relevant enterprises will gradually resume normal operation, and the electronic industry is expected to hit the bottom and rebound. Shanghai has achieved phased results in epidemic prevention, and the whole city has achieved zero social aspects. Shanghai will promote the comprehensive resumption of business and the city in stages from May 16. Heshuo Shanghai factory announced that it will resume work in a closed-loop manner from May 16. Shanghai has announced two batches of white lists of enterprises that have resumed work in April, and will announce the third batch of white lists in the near future. Kunshan has also been fully unsealed on May 6. With the improvement of the epidemic situation in Shanghai and the implementation of measures to resume work and production, The operation of relevant enterprises will be greatly improved.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to the leading stocks in the consumer electronics and passive components industries. At present, the pessimistic expectation has been fully reflected. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, the rebound market is expected to continue. Give the "overweight" rating to the consumer electronics and passive components industry.
Risk tips
Supply chain recovery progress is lower than expected; The serious situation of long and short materials is higher than expected.
