The overall fluctuation of the national epidemic situation has decreased, and the travel sector is expected to recover
At present, the number of newly infected people in China fluctuates and decreases, but the national epidemic situation is still severe and complex. The difference of epidemic situation between regions leads to the difference in the recovery rhythm of Listed Companies in the travel sector. Airports in Shenzhen, Baiyun and Xiamen have recovered well, and Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) is still recovering gradually. The overall flight volume of listed airlines recovered slowly, but there were great differences between airlines. China Southern Airlines rebounded from the bottom and tended to be stable, while Air China, China Eastern Airlines and Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) recovered slowly Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) affected by the epidemic in Shanghai and Beijing, we expect the passenger volume to resume in late May. With the stabilization of the national epidemic situation, we expect that the whole travel sector is expected to usher in a significant recovery from the middle and late May. If the epidemic situation is stable and the travel peaks such as summer transportation and national day come in the second half of the year, the prosperity of the travel sector is still worth looking forward to.
The epidemic situation determines the degree of aviation recovery, and the rebound in the third and fourth quarters is expected
The passenger traffic volume in April and may day was low, but with the further stabilization of the epidemic in Shanghai and the whole country, it is expected that the civil aviation passenger traffic volume will gradually recover from mid to late May. The entry-exit restriction policy may further reduce the international and regional passenger flow, but it has a limited impact on the performance of airlines during the epidemic, because the passenger volume of overseas routes during the epidemic is less than 1%. We are still optimistic about the performance of airlines in the third and fourth quarters after the epidemic gradually stabilized. If the epidemic situation is stable, the passenger volume of civil aviation may rebound significantly from the third quarter. Superimposed on the traditional summer peak season, the passenger volume may reach a phased high since the epidemic, which will drive the increase of passenger occupancy and ticket prices, and the performance of airlines may be repaired quickly. Recommend Air China Limited(601111) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , and pay attention to Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) .
The volume of centralized freight is expected to recover, and the freight rate is expected to stabilize and rebound
From February to April, the freight rate of centralized transportation dropped significantly, mainly due to the lack of short-term cargo volume caused by the Chinese New Year and the Chinese epidemic, and the improvement of port congestion in Europe and the United States has brought about the growth of effective transportation capacity. However, since May, the freight rate of the east-west trunk line has stabilized and rebounded. In the future, we believe that with the gradual resumption of work and production in Shanghai, the volume of goods is expected to be replenished, and the long-term association price may restrict the alliance to jointly maintain the spot freight rate to protect the interests of itself and major customers. There is little space and probability for further decline of subsequent freight rates. As of Q1, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) net debt has reached - 150.3 billion yuan. With the gradual realization of profits during the year, the company's balance sheet is expected to become stronger. Recommend Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) .
The high prosperity of intelligent warehousing and logistics industry has begun to take shape
According to the data of the first quarter, most companies in the industry achieved relatively excellent growth on the revenue side, but the performance on the profit side was relatively general. We believe that the first quarter was mainly caused by factors such as the traditional off-season, rising raw material prices, intensified competition and substantial increase in expenses. At present, companies have full orders on hand. Both high-end manufacturing and traditional industries need the help of intelligent warehousing and logistics system to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The industry is expected to get better and enter the golden development period. It is suggested to pay attention to Bluesword Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(688557) .
Risk tip: the epidemic has repeatedly exceeded expectations, the oil price has risen sharply, the RMB has depreciated seriously, the global economy has declined more than expected, and the cost of raw materials such as steel has increased more than expected.
