Key points:
Last week, the segments of the new material industry rebounded sharply, led by the magnetic material sector. Last week, the valuations of all sectors (price earnings ratio TTM) rebounded, and only the PE valuation of photovoltaic materials sector was slightly higher than the long-term historical median level
Last week, all segments of the industry achieved relatively positive returns, and the magnetic material sector performed best, with a weekly increase of 10.86%, outperforming the benchmark (Shanghai and Shenzhen 300) by 8.81 percentage points. The valuation level (price earnings ratio TTM) of each sector rebounded last week. From the historical quantile of valuation level, the sectors of magnetic materials, carbon fiber, lithium battery materials, semiconductor materials and panel materials were located at 19.1%, 4.6%, 16.6%, 32.1% and 0.4% of the long-term valuation level respectively last week. Only the photovoltaic material sector was slightly higher than the long-term historical median level, at 55.3%.
The price of praseodymium and neodymium stabilized after rising, and the weekly average gross profit of praseodymium and neodymium oxide industry rebounded. The prices of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium rose, and the prices of gadolinium iron and holmium ferroalloy rebounded sharply. The spot price of cobalt fell, the prices of ferroboron and ferroniobium alloy were basically stable, and the price of gallium continued to reach a new high. The price of sintered Nd-Fe-B magnetic material blank rises
Praseodymium and neodymium: the price of praseodymium and neodymium rose rapidly and then stabilized last week. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China was 915000 yuan / ton, up 6.03% on a weekly basis; The average price of praseodymium and neodymium was 1115000 yuan / ton, up 5.69% on a weekly basis. Last week, the market atmosphere of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was good in the early stage. There was a shortage of raw materials and upside down waste. The manufacturers were in a strong mood. The metal factory just needed to make a deal. However, with the listing price of China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) hanging out, the market wait-and-see increased and the transaction decreased, but the spot circulation was tight and the price was firm under the game of supply and demand. The price of metal praseodymium and neodymium is stable after the rise, but the shipment transaction is still upside down, and the new orders of magnetic material enterprises are less. Last week, the output of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 1355 tons, with a decrease of 2.17% on a weekly basis. The early suspension of production led to a decline in waste output. The insufficient supply of waste led to a reduction in the start-up of recycling enterprises and a decrease in output. At the same time, ionic ore continues to be tight, subsequent production is difficult to stabilize, and the overall supply is expected to continue to decrease. Last week, the inventory of praseodymium and neodymium oxide factory was 3291 tons, a decrease of 1.26% on a weekly basis. The spot inventory in the market is small, the metal factory just needs to replenish, the liquidity of traders increases, the actual transaction improves, and the overall inventory is consumed. Last week, the average gross profit of praseodymium and neodymium oxide industry increased by 19000 yuan / ton to 63300 yuan / ton; The average gross profit of the metal praseodymium and neodymium industry decreased from 8900 yuan / ton to – 10000 yuan / ton.
Heavy Rare Earths: the price of dysprosium rose last week. The average price of dysprosium oxide and dysprosium iron in China was 2590 yuan / kg, rising by 1.54% and 1.73% respectively on a weekly basis. Last week, the dysprosium oxide Market inquiry was ok, the actual transaction price rose, traders were active, and the overall trend was stable and upward. Downstream magnetic material enterprises just need replenishment, the actual receiving quantity is limited, and the quotation of dysprosium iron is high. The national average price of terbium oxide was 14980 yuan / kg, up 3.67% on a weekly basis; The average price of metal terbium was 18700 yuan / kg, up 3.31% on a weekly basis. Terbium oxide Market spot is not much, a small amount of bulk goods are reported, and there are few transactions after the price increase, mainly stable. Last week, the average price of gadolinium ferroalloy in China was 500000 yuan / ton, up 13.64% week on week; The average price of holmium ferroalloy in China was 1.355 million yuan / ton, up 7.11% week on week. Recently, holmium inquiry orders have increased, merchants’ shipments are stable, the quotation rises with the overall market, and the low actual transaction price moves up.
Other raw materials: last week, LME cobalt futures were flat at US $82000 / ton on a weekly basis, and the spot price of Yangtze nonferrous cobalt fell 2.38% to 534000 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. The price of metal gallium (99.99%) rose 3.6% week on week to 2875 yuan / kg, and the prices of ferroboron (18%) and ferroniobium (60-a) remained basically stable.
Sintered NdFeB: the price of NdFeB rose last week, and the national average price of rough sintered NdFeB N35 and H35 rose by 5 yuan / kg to 266.5 yuan / kg and 335.5 yuan / kg respectively.
The price of cathode cobalt raw material fell, nickel, cobalt and manganese sulfate fell sharply, the price of lithium source stabilized after high adjustment, the price of cathode precursor fell sharply, and the price of cathode material was adjusted. In the electrolyte link, lithium hexafluorophosphate continued to fall sharply, the bottom of DMC price was stable, and the price of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte fell sharply. The negative electrode material is stable, some varieties of diaphragm are upward, and the price of copper foil and processing fee are both adjusted
Cathode material: last Wednesday, the battery grade electrolytic cobalt at the cathode raw material end fell by 3.12% to 528000 yuan / ton. The prices of cobalt, nickel and manganese sulfate were 108500 yuan / ton, 43500 yuan / ton and 9700 yuan / ton respectively, with a decrease of 6.87%, 4.4% and 7.62% on a weekly basis. The prices of ternary precursors ncm111, ncm523 and ncm622 fell by 5.35%, 5.77% and 4.36% to 150500 yuan / ton, 147000 yuan / ton and 153500 yuan / ton respectively. Lithium source prices continued to be weak, including battery grade lithium carbonate, which was flat at 461500 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, and lithium hydroxide, which fell 0.32% to 467500 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. The prices of ternary cathode materials ncm523 and ncm622 fell by 0.14% and 1.53% to 349000 yuan / ton and 385000 yuan / ton respectively; The price of precursor iron orthophosphate was flat at 25200 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode fell by 3.13% to 155000 yuan / ton.
Electrolyte: on Saturday, the price of lithium fluorophosphate fell by 10.81% to 330000 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of DMC Chinese manufacturers was unchanged at 5400 yuan / ton on a week-on-week basis. The price of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte decreased by 5.41% to 87500 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. The prices of lithium manganate, ternary cylinder 2.2ah and ternary cylinder 2.6ah electrolyte were flat at 67800 yuan / ton, 92500 yuan / ton and 107500 yuan / ton respectively.
Negative electrode material: last week, the prices of domestic middle-end artificial graphite and natural graphite were flat at 53000 yuan / ton and 51000 yuan / ton respectively.
Diaphragm: the price of mainstream diaphragm products in China rose last week. The weekly output of diaphragm is 205.08 million square meters, with a weekly ring ratio increase of 1.85%; The operating rate of the industry was 68.87%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points on a weekly basis. The inventory of lithium battery diaphragm manufacturers was 43.35 million square meters, down 0.46% month on month.
Battery grade copper foil: last week, due to the weakening demand for terminal new energy vehicles and the rapid rise in the price of raw materials in the early stage, the market price of copper foil and the price of processing fees increased by enterprises both fell under the low load production of battery enterprises. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, last week 8 μ M and 6 μ M the average prices in the mainstream market were 109000 yuan / ton and 119000 yuan / ton respectively, down 2.24% and 2.86% week on week. eight μ M and 6 μ The processing fee of M battery grade copper foil is reduced by 1000 yuan / ton and 2000 yuan / ton to 35 Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) 00 yuan / ton and 46 Bingshan Refrigeration & Heat Transfer Technologies Co.Ltd(000530) 00 yuan / ton respectively.
Downstream DRAM prices of semiconductor materials continued to fall, and flash memory prices remained stable
Last week, the semiconductor industry index in Taiwan and Philadelphia fell 2.22% and 0.39% month on week respectively; Dix index fell 0.67% mom. In DRAM, the price of downstream ddr34gb (1600MHZ) fell 1.74% to US $2.424. The prices of nandflash 64GB and 32GB were flat at $3.988 and slightly increased by 0.19% to $2.155 respectively.
Investment advice
In the short term, with the good progress of the epidemic and the introduction of macro policies, the valuation of various sectors rebounded under the repair of market risk sentiment. The current low valuation and Q1 performance growth are supported, but we need to wait for the bottom after the risk of Q2 performance decline is released. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities for the rare earth permanent magnet sector whose demand growth is expected to increase significantly in the medium and long term driven by policies and whose valuation has entered the historical medium and low range, as well as the pull of the demand for carbon based composites under the long-term growth prospect of photovoltaic installation, the increase of market capacity caused by the demand for lithium battery materials in the long-term development space of electric vehicles, and the long-term trend of localization of integrated circuits, Localization progress and opportunities of semiconductor materials.
Risk tips
Price decline risk, prosperity change risk, policy change risk.
