Key investment points:
In 2021, the revenue growth of the computer industry recovered significantly and the profit performance was poor: in 2021, the computer industry realized a total operating revenue of 1032729 billion yuan, an increase of 15.30% year-on-year under the overall method; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 45.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.68% under the overall method. The overall gross profit margin and net profit margin of the industry were 26.85% and 4.38% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.07pct and 1.21pct respectively. The industry expense ratio has increased, mainly due to the increase of R & D expense ratio by 0.37pct year-on-year, which shows that the industry still maintains a high R & D investment under the pressure of profit side. The net operating cash flow was 38.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.70%.
In 2022, the revenue growth of Q1 computer industry slowed down, and the profit declined greatly: in 2022, Q1 computer industry realized an operating revenue of 209580 billion yuan, an increase of 14.77% year-on-year under the overall method, and a decrease of 17.44pct year-on-year compared with the growth rate of Q1 in 21 years; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.502 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.50% under the overall method. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of the industry as a whole decreased by 1.39pct and 3.17pct respectively year-on-year. The overall cost rate increased slightly, among which the R & D cost rate increased by 1.66 PCT year-on-year. The net outflow of operating cash flow increased.
The performance of segments such as Internet of vehicles, intelligent manufacturing and information innovation is good: the revenue growth of Internet of vehicles, artificial intelligence and information innovation is the best in 2021, with the growth rates of 32.26%, 30.26% and 29.30% respectively. In the single quarter of Q1 of 22, the revenue growth of the Internet of vehicles, intelligent manufacturing and artificial intelligence sectors performed best, with 38.44%, 34.62% and 26.51% respectively. From the profit side, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of smart transportation, financial it and Internet of vehicles in 2021 was the best; In 2022, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 was the best in the sectors of information innovation, intelligent manufacturing and education informatization.
The fund position level of Q1 in the computer industry was at a historical low in 22 years: the heavy position of Q1 in the computer industry accounted for 3.58% in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 1.88pct compared with Q1 in 2021 and a month on month decrease of 0.77pct compared with Q4 in 2021. Compared with the proportion of the circulating market value of the computer industry in the circulating market value of all a shares, the low allocation is 0.37pct. Compared with the proportion of heavy positions held by funds in recent 10 years, the position level of Q1 in the computer industry in 22 years has been at a historical low. The top ten stocks of 22q1 fund are mainly distributed in the fields of intelligent driving, financial technology and information innovation.
Investment suggestion: the overall rise of industry salary in 21 years led to short-term pressure on the profit side. The repeated epidemic of Q1 in 2022 also had a certain impact on the computer industry. It is expected that with the weakening of the impact of the epidemic and the recovery of industry growth, the high investment in early human costs will be gradually digested, and the profit is expected to usher in an inflection point. It is suggested to focus on the changes of company orders and capital expenditure in relevant fields. We focus on promoting the networking of vehicles and intelligent manufacturing sectors with strong downstream demand and in the period of industrial transformation, as well as the information innovation and financial technology sectors with continuous favorable policies.
Risk factors: global geopolitical risk; Macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Technology advancement fails to meet expectations; Industry it capital expenditure is lower than expected; The performance uncertainty caused by the rapid growth of industry personnel.
