\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 363 Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) )
Performance overview: in 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 1.255 billion yuan / + 61.57%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 200 million yuan / + 31.07%, of which the revenue growth rate from January to February was about 55%. It is estimated that the revenue growth rate in March reached about 69%, and the company performed strongly under the epidemic.
Revenue and profitability: the functional skin care products business boosted revenue growth and further increased R & D investment. It is estimated that the revenue of skin care products business in 2022q1 accounts for about 70%, of which the growth rate of muscle activity is outstanding, and the revenue volume is close to runbaiyan and kuadi. In terms of gross profit margin, affected by the change of accounting standards in which performance costs such as freight are adjusted to operating costs, the gross profit margin of 2022q1 company decreased by 1.56pcts to 77.13% year-on-year; In terms of expense rate, during 2022q1, the expense rate increased by 3.95pcts to 57.62% year-on-year, and the sales / management / R & D expense rate increased by 1.55pcts/0.81pcts/1.48pcts to 45.12% / 6.22% / 6.49% year-on-year respectively. Among them, the sales expense rate decreased by 4.12pcts month on month compared with the whole year of 2021, and the cost control effect of functional skin care products business was remarkable.
Core view: 1) the four functional skin care brands of the company have significant growth, the brand matrix is gradually improved, the cost control is gradually optimized, and the value of skin care brand is improved α Logic will support the deterministic growth of the company’s medium and short-term performance. The four major brands of the company’s functional skin care business have gradually developed in gradients and maintained a high growth trend as a whole. Among them, the core brand runbaiyan has gradually reduced its dependence on the head anchor, and the operating expense rate of kwadi’s deep cultivation in the private domain has shown a downward trend. With the two advantages of facial mask and toner, and the large single product of brown rice essence for muscle activity, the flow is stable. In 2021, the proportion of Tiktok channel in the skin care business increased by 14pcts to 17% year-on-year, Tmall’s channel, which focuses on talent live broadcasting, has declined. Among them, runbaiyan talent live broadcasting has decreased 8pcts to 19% year-on-year. At this stage, the profit models of various brands of functional skin care products are running smoothly, and the company’s profits are expected to be released to a large extent in the medium and short term; 2) The company has a clear strategic development to build a platform enterprise of bioactive substances. It will continue to make efforts in the fields of synthetic biology and new collagen, and its long-term performance flexibility may come from the development of new raw materials in the future β Value. The whole process of synthetic biology is composed of front-end strain transformation, middle-end metabolic synthesis, back-end biological fermentation production and other links. Therefore, synthetic biological enterprises naturally have platform extensibility. Since 2021, the company has focused on the development of synthetic biology in the field of bottom basic research γ- Aminobutyric acid and other bioactive substances have been put into operation and contributed more than 10 million yuan in revenue in 2021. Over the years, the company has accumulated volume in 2B and 2C businesses, and has formed scale advantages. Instead of enabling to build cost advantages at the raw material production end, we believe that the company is expected to continue to replicate its success in the classic raw material hyaluronic acid and create the next phenomenal raw material product through its strong market transformation ability. In addition, recently, the company acquired 51% equity of Yierkang biology and arranged collagen sponge and artificial bone products. At the same time, the company’s self-developed recombinant collagen is also in the process. In the future, it is expected to realize the industrial chain synergy of collagen raw materials + end products.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: under the industry dividend, the company, as the global leader of hyaluronic acid raw materials, has prominent cost advantages. Its business expansion to medical terminals, functional skin care products and functional foods is natural. The company adheres to long-term ism and deserves long-term attention. We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 6.902906/11.342 billion respectively (growth rate of 40% / 30% / 26%), the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 977/12.83/1.620 billion respectively (growth rate of 25% / 31% / 26%), the EPS will be RMB 2.03/2.67/3.38 respectively, and the corresponding valuation of the current market value will be 64x / 49x / 39xpe respectively. The company takes the technology platform as the underlying logic, then extends to the industrial transformation platform for pilot test, and finally goes to the market transformation platform to deepen channel marketing. We are optimistic about the company’s ability to shift from the layout of the whole industrial chain to a platform enterprise. The company has diversified businesses and strong ability to resist risks. We give the company 2xpeg in 2023 (the performance CAGR from 2021 to 2023 is 28%, corresponding to about 56xpe in 2023), and the corresponding target price range is 149.52-150.59 yuan, Give the company a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: capacity expansion of competitors; The progress of new expansion areas is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies; The market acceptance of new products is lower than expected; Risk of cosmetic medical malpractice.
