\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 126 Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) )
The results in the first quarter were in line with expectations. In the first quarter, the revenue was 2.055 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 70 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.2%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 37 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.1%. The decline in profit was mainly due to the comprehensive impact of the Shanghai epidemic, the obvious year-on-year decline in the production and sales of commercial vehicles and the rise in the prices of raw materials and sea freight.
In the first quarter, the gross profit margin was under short-term pressure, and the cash flow improved significantly. The gross profit margin in the first quarter was 19.2%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in gross profit margin is expected to be mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials and sea freight, the decline in the proportion of sales of commercial vehicle products and the epidemic in Shanghai. During the first quarter, the expense rate increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, of which the sales expense rate increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year and the financial expense rate increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities in the first quarter was 51 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 265.8%, which is expected to be mainly due to the increase in cash sales of goods in the current period and the increase in deferred payment of taxes in the previous period.
With the rapid development of new energy heat management business, it is expected that the increase of scale will drive the improvement of profitability. Since 2010, based on the research in the field of new energy thermal management, the company has continued to increase R & D investment. At present, the company has formed a “1 + 3 + n” product layout of new energy thermal management products such as new energy thermal management system + front-end cooling module, thermal management integration module, air conditioning box module + chiller, cooling sector, condenser and electronic water pump. The richness of new energy thermal management products is leading in the world. The company’s system integration ability and R & D innovation ability have been widely recognized by well-known new energy brands at home and abroad. The main customers of new energy include North American new energy benchmark car enterprises, Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal, GAC, Chang’an, great wall, Geely and other Chinese foreign vehicle manufacturers. According to the company’s announcement, the new energy business accounted for about 49% of the company’s new projects in 2021, and the new energy business revenue accounted for about 11% in 2021 (an increase of about 6 percentage points year-on-year in 2020). It is expected that the proportion will increase to more than 25% in 2022. With the continuous improvement of the sales volume of the company’s new energy products, the scale effect is expected to gradually appear, driving the continuous improvement of the company’s profitability.
It is predicted that the eps0 will be from 2022 to 202451, 0.67 and 0.90 yuan are valued according to 22 years. Comparable companies are companies related to the automobile heat exchanger and new energy vehicle industry chain. The average PE valuation of comparable companies in 22 years is 24 times, and the target price is 12.24 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The supporting quantity of heat management system of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the supporting quantity of tail gas post-treatment is lower than expected, and the supporting quantity of heat exchanger is lower than expected.
