\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 83 Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) )
Event: the company released the annual performance report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 45.285 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 34.15%; The net profit attributable to listed companies was 4.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112.94%; The basic earnings per share was 1.02 yuan, an increase of 112.96% over the same period last year. In 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 13.278 billion yuan (43.41%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.456 billion yuan (170.02%).
The high price of coal leads to a significant increase in profits, and the performance growth in 2022 is expected. In 2021, the coal sector achieved an operating revenue of 25.619 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.49%, and an operating profit of 14.538 billion yuan (84.50%). The output of raw coal was 35.69 million tons (0.71%), and the actual sales of commercial coal was 28.71 million tons (1.16%). The comprehensive selling price of commercial coal is 892.36 yuan / ton (42.84%), and the unit comprehensive cost of commercial coal is 386.10 yuan / ton (11.22%). The company’s gross profit per ton of commercial coal was 506 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 82.39% and a gross profit margin of 56.73% (an increase of 12.30 percentage points). Benefiting from the overall sharp rise in coal prices in 2021, the revenue of the coal sector accounted for 56.57% of the total revenue. The price of the company’s coal products was at a high level, and the gross profit increased significantly. Q1 coking coal prices continued to rise, the company fully benefited, and the performance increased significantly to a record high.
Coke profits increased steadily, and power and heat dragged down performance. The coke sector of the company achieved an operating revenue of 10.461 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 41.86% and a profit of 549 million yuan (26.96%). The coke output is 4.15 million tons (- 4.60%), and the sales volume is 4.12 million tons (- 6.36%); The unit gross profit of coke business was 133.23 yuan / ton (34.04%), and the unit gross profit margin was 5.25% (down 0.62 percentage points). The coke production and sales volume of the company decreased slightly, the high price of coal led to the rise of coke price and cost, and the gross profit margin was basically stable. The company’s electricity and heat business achieved a revenue of 5.870 billion yuan (1.54%), an operating cost of 7.591 billion yuan (38.36%), and a loss of 1.721 billion yuan; The electricity sold was 19.1 billion kWh (0.53%), and the heat supply was 27.76 million GJ (- 8.47%). The sharp increase in cost led to a loss in the company’s power and thermal business.
The dividend yield of 5.64% exceeded the expectation, and the scale of asset injection capacity of the group continued to increase. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8 yuan (including tax) to the shareholders of the company for every ten shares. The cash dividend plan is 3.277 billion yuan, with a corresponding dividend rate of 78.7%. According to the stock price on April 28, 2022, the dividend rate is 5.64%. By the end of 2021, the company has 13 mines, including 12 mines in production and 1 Mine under construction; The reserves of coal resources are 4.377 billion tons. In 2022, it is planned to produce 34.6 million tons of raw coal and 13.78 million tons of washed coal, with a stable output. The company completed the acquisition of Shuiyu Coal Industry and Tenghui coal industry in 2020, and has completed the current commitment to increase the company’s performance; The company further plans to acquire 51% equity of Huajin coking coal and 49% equity of Mingzhu coal under Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) group by issuing shares and paying cash. After the acquisition, it will continue to help the expansion of the company’s production capacity.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 7.97/89.2/9.43 billion respectively, and the current share price corresponds to PE of 7.2/6.4/6.1 times. The first coverage gives the company a buy rating.
Risk tip: the coal price fell more than expected, and the downstream demand was less than expected.
