In the process of high-end, listed Baijiu enterprises have closed the traditional peak season of the Spring Festival with the performance of almost full line growth. Among them, the advantages of the head liquor enterprises are becoming more and more obvious, and the performance has broken through a new high. The growth rate of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ( Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) . SH) is the highest, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit in last year and the first quarter of this year exceeds 70%; The competition pattern of second and third tier Baijiu has changed, and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ( Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) .sz), and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) sh ( Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) .sh) have come from behind. In the first quarter, they surpassed Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) .sh and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) sh ( Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) .sh) to join the “1.5 billion revenue” camp for the first time.
However, the reporter of the daily economic news noticed that under the high-end process of the industry, the output of Baijiu is declining year by year. With the successive expansion of famous liquor enterprises, the industry competition will further intensify, and brand and capital may be the key factors.
The pattern of head liquor enterprises has solidified, and the second and third tier competition has intensified
In terms of last year’s annual performance, in 2021, the pattern of liquor enterprises at the head of “maowuyang Lufen” in the Baijiu industry has not changed, and the scale of revenue has reached a record high. Among them, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ( Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . SH) has a revenue of more than 100 billion yuan, further consolidating its position as the leader of Maotai flavor, and setting a business target of increasing the total operating revenue by about 15% in 2022; Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ( Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . SZ), which has completed the replacement of the old and the new, also maintained a stable growth of about 15%, and its goal of maintaining double-digit growth in 2022.
It is noteworthy that the “fragrance leader” Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) is gradually rising Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) 2021 achieved a total revenue of 19.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.75%, and a net profit of 5.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.98%; In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.62%, and a net profit of 3.728 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.64%. The net profit growth rate of more than 70% is likely to rank among the top three in the Baijiu industry.
In addition, compared with the solidified pattern of head liquor enterprises, the competition of second and third tier liquor enterprises is much more intense.
Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) ( Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) . SH), Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) ( Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) . SH), Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) ( Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . SH), Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) . Among them, the performance of COFCO holdings in Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) recent three years has achieved rapid growth. The revenue from 2019 to 2021 was 1.512 billion yuan, 1.826 billion yuan and 3.414 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit was 299 million yuan, 492 million yuan and 893 million yuan respectively. The revenue and net profit in the first quarter of 2022 increased by 86.04% and 94.46% respectively Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) in its first year, Fosun also achieved good performance. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 4.969 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.8%, a net profit of 1.271 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.25%, and a revenue of 1.884 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.25%, a net profit of 535 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.09%.
On May 5, caixuefei, general manager of Zhiqu consulting and Baijiu expert, told the reporter of the daily economic news via wechat: “both Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) s and shede are highly focused on high-end products, and there is a large capital behind them to promote the upgrading of product structure and national market expansion. In this case, consumption upgrading has driven the sales of secondary high-end and high-end products, resulting in a substantial increase in performance.”
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) pointed out that high-end liquor strives for progress while maintaining stability, reform and improvement is the main line, Maotai marketing potential energy (prominent), revenue and profit growth out of the U-shaped bottom, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) personnel adjustment, boot landing, optimization and adjustment of various product strategies, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) equity incentive landing and escort performance growth. Due to the gradual elimination of the low base effect in the same period, the growth rate of sub sectors decreased reasonably, but it still increased high. Resources focused on the main single products, the market margin opened, and the strong growth continued. The performance of regional leaders in Yanghe and gujinggong exceeded expectations. From the perspective of advance collection at the end of Q1, a number of liquor enterprises reached a new high, leaving surplus grain for Q2. Judging from the rhythm of “suppression before promotion” throughout the year, the suppression factors gradually eased from January to March, and now Baijiu ushered in the first inflection point, that is, the inflection point of the epidemic situation, which helped Baijiu stabilize and rebound. Although it is currently in the off-season of Baijiu consumption, the recovery of consumption scenarios makes the off-season channel inventory maintain a dynamic balance / healthy level, which is conducive to the later peak season performance.
It is worth noting that Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) ( Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) . SZ), which has been hovering on the edge of “10 billion” for many years, does not seem to have a smooth road to high-end. In 2020 and 2021, the company’s revenue of low-grade Baijiu products below RMB 10 accounted for 74.93% and 76.93% of the total revenue of liquor respectively. From 2019 to 2021, the gross profit margin of Baijiu business was 48.08%, 39.22% and 37.72% respectively, which was declining year by year.
Recently, the company has launched the high-end product Kuisheng bottle seal. However, on June 1 this year, the new national standard for Baijiu will be officially implemented. One of the key categories of the company, flavored Baijiu, has been classified into the category of blended liquor and excluded from the category of Baijiu. In this regard, the company said in the 2021 annual performance presentation that the promulgation of the new national standard is more conducive to the long-term development of the industry and brand enterprises to a certain extent. Whether it is Baijiu produced by solid-state method, liquid-state method or solid-liquid method, there are no advantages or disadvantages in the nature of the products, and the products are different only because of the process. In order to meet the needs of different consumers for products, the company has a rich Baijiu product line, covering pure grain solid-state fermentation and solid-liquid method products. In the future, the company will give full play to the traditional brewing advantages of cow wine and realize the “double wheel drive” of “Niulanshan” in the field of “pure grain solid” and “new process technology” in the field of light bottle wine.
Brand and capital may become key factors in industry competition
Corresponding to the continuous growth of liquor enterprises’ performance in recent years, the output of Chinese Baijiu has declined year by year, almost halving since 2016P align= “center”20162020 Baijiu production data
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2020, the cumulative output of Chinese Baijiu (converted to 65 degrees, commodity volume) was 7.407 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; It was 7.156 million kiloliters in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%.
However, under this trend, listed liquor enterprises have expanded their production in the near future. In April this year, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) announced that it planned to invest 7.054 billion yuan in the construction of production and capacity expansion projects; In March, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) plans to invest 9.102 billion yuan to build and implement the expansion project of original liquor production and storage of Fenjiu 2030 technical transformation (phase I); In February, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) plans to invest 9.076 billion yuan to implement the project of intelligent brewing and storage center in the South plant area; In January, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) decided to invest 4.11 billion yuan to implement the phase I construction project of Maotai flavored wine Xishui tongminba in the 14th five year plan.
According to the 2021 annual report, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) “13000 ton base wine warehouse project”, “303 production plant”, “202 production plant” and other projects are under construction Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) the project of ” Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) Qionglai whole industry chain base” with a planned investment of 2.42 billion yuan is expected to be completed in 2023 Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) plans to invest 1.36 billion yuan in the “relocation of 20000 tons of Daqu liquor brewing quality improvement and efficiency improvement project” under construction Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) ( Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) . SH) “Hengshui Laobaigan phase IV liquor making workshop expansion project”, “Wuling new plant area” and “Confucius family returning to the city and entering the park project” are under construction.
In the current era of stock competition, the “big” production expansion of famous liquor enterprises may further reduce the market share of other liquor enterprises, especially the tail liquor enterprises.
Caixuefei said: “under the stock competition pattern, the competitive elements of Baijiu focus on the brand culture and category quality dimensions, and make a rapid leap towards the high-end market. At present, under the strong differentiation trend, the famous liquor (share) continues to increase, rather than the gradual marginalization of famous liquor.”
The reporter noted that in this round of production expansion, brand and capital may become the key factors of industry competition. As can be seen from the above, the support of Fosun Group and COFCO liquor industry behind Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) ; Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) also achieved significant loss reduction in performance in the first quarter of this year.
Cai Xuefei further pointed out that “capital is the icing on the cake. The premise is that the tail liquor enterprises should have the concept of famous liquor gene and quality, and have complete organization and execution, so that capital can boost. In this way, only those tail liquor enterprises with medium and high-end product upgrading advantages and small and medium-sized liquor enterprises with cultural characteristics can break through.”
