On May 5, Guangzhou ushered in the first round of centralized land supply auction.
It is understood that among the 18 residential land sold in Guangzhou, 15 were sold at the reserve price, 2 at a premium, 1 at a auction, and the total amount was 34.14 billion yuan.
it is worth noting that among the 17 land parcels traded this time, the local urban investment platforms of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises won a total of 14. Among them, Guangzhou Metro won 4 cases and became the biggest winner
Statistics show that as of April 30, 14 of the 22 key cities, including Beijing, Xiamen, Chongqing and Wuhan, have completed the first batch of transfer, with significant differentiation in market performance.
Industry insiders believe that affected by the lowering of the threshold for local auction in many cities, the market heat has rebounded slightly compared with the end of last year. However, the land market in some second and third tier cities is still in the cold winter, and the phenomenon of land auction is still serious. It is expected that the local auction in a few key cities may recover in the second quarter under the influence of actively adjusting the land supply strategy to deal with market changes and good news on the policy side.
most of the plots were taken by state-owned enterprises
On May 5, in the first round of centralized land supply auction in Guangzhou, among the 18 residential land sold, 15 were sold at the base price, 2 at a premium and 1 at a low auction, with a total amount of 34.14 billion yuan.
it is understood that 25 real estate enterprises including Yuexiu, Longhu, China railway construction, Xiamen Itg Group Corp.Ltd(600755) , China Construction Development and China Resources signed up for the local auction
What attracted the most attention in this local auction was the plot on the east side of Airport Avenue in Baiyun District, which attracted 12 state-owned enterprises and private enterprises such as poly, China shipping, Minmetals, Longhu and Midea. Finally, after 25 rounds of bidding, China Shipping won the plot with the proportion of 2.719 billion yuan + 9% residential self ownership, with a premium rate of 15% and a floor price of 34500 yuan / m2.
Another premium transaction plot is Liwan Jinqiao phase II plot. Finally, after 11 rounds of bidding, Guangdong Lanyuan holdings won with 54976 million yuan, with a premium rate of 10% and a floor price of 33200 yuan / m2.
“In this round of land auction, the government is relatively conservative in setting the base price, and the mentality of smooth transfer is obvious. Taking the plot of Konggang Avenue in Baiyun District as an example, it is located in Baiyun New Town. CNOOC won the top price of 2.72 billion + 9% self-sustaining. The saleable floor price is about 41000 yuan / m2, and the capacity floor price is 34500 yuan / m2, which is far lower than the floor price of more than 40000 in the same region in recent years.” Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong housing policy research center, said.
in addition to the reasonable reserve price, Li Yujia believes that there are only two premium transactions, which shows the mentality of the local government to give profits to developers and improve their enthusiasm for land acquisition. At the same time, among the 18 parcels of land, 11 are from the central six districts, which is also the first of the four centralized land supply since 2021. The proportion of land supply in the central area is greater than that in the peripheral areas. It can be seen that the local government took out the good plots at the bottom of the pressure box
The local auction finally clinched 17 parcels of land, and 14 were won by state-owned enterprises, central enterprises and local urban investment platforms. Among them, Guangzhou Metro spent 16.519 billion yuan to win four cases, becoming the biggest winner and contributing nearly half of the land transfer fee.
“The subway is the biggest winner, which means that in realizing regional development and interregional connectivity in Guangzhou, the subway hopes that the real estate can provide cash flow supplement and make up for the huge investment in infrastructure, so as to realize the synergy of real estate, transportation and regional development.” Li Yujia said.
in addition to Guangzhou Metro, Yuexiu real estate and Guangzhou urban construction took two cases respectively, and there were also three regional urban investments – Guangzhou Nantou, Panyu transportation and knowledge city
On the one hand, the main reason for the state-owned investment and Yucheng enterprises to stabilize the land price is to avoid the downward impact of the land price on the land market. On the other hand, private enterprise real estate has a lot of thunderstorms in Guangzhou. It is estimated that it will not slow down for a while and will not take land. In the case of arduous tasks such as regional development, Dawan district construction and interconnection, it is expected that state-owned enterprises and central enterprises will continue to dominate, so as to make the upstream and downstream of the real estate market pick up, so as to achieve the goal of real estate stability and resolving enterprise risks.
multi city land auction heat increased slightly compared with the end of last year
According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, as of April 30, 2022, among the 22 key cities, 19 key cities such as Beijing and Fuzhou have announced the first batch of centralized land supply, Zhengzhou and Wuxi have opened the “pre announcement and pre application” mode of the first batch of land supply, and Beijing has taken the lead in issuing the announcement of the second batch of pre application; Shenyang and Changchun have not issued an announcement yet. 14 cities including Beijing, Xiamen, Chongqing and Wuhan completed the first batch of transfer. The hot and cold differentiation is significant in the cities that have completed the transfer. Among them, there were 3 cases of floating auction and 3 cases of card withdrawal in Fuzhou; Tianjin land auction substantially terminated the transfer and flow auction of the parcel of land; Almost all the 60 parcels of land in Hangzhou were traded, and the premium of all the parcels of land in Shenzhen hit the top.
Ding Zuyu, executive director of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, pointed out that affected by the lowering of the threshold of land auction in many cities, the performance of heat indicators such as premium rate and flow auction rate was slightly better than that at the end of last year, and the market heat rebounded slightly. For example, the heat of the first round of centralized land auction in Beijing, Hangzhou and Hefei this year has increased significantly compared with the second half of last year, and there have been a number of land block top transactions. However, affected by the sharp reduction of the upper limit of the premium rate, the market heat is significantly lower than that in the same period last year, and the overall premium rate is only 4%, which is still at a historically low level.
At the same time, the land market in the strong third and fourth tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta also began to show a warming signal. Ding Zuyu pointed out that although most plots are still traded at the reserve price, there has been a high fever of 100 rounds of bidding in cities such as Taizhou, Nantong and Haining, and the bidding heat of high-quality plots has gradually rebounded. Take the plot of Jiajia street in Jiaojiang, Taizhou as an example. The winner of the plot was finally determined after more than 600 rounds of bidding. Finally, green city and Taizhou urban investment won the plot with a maximum price of 2.009 billion yuan + 20600 square meters of policy housing.
In addition, since the beginning of this year, the phenomenon of land auction in key cities has further eased compared with the end of last year. In this regard, Ding Zuyu believes that the easing of the flow auction phenomenon is due to the easing of the capital tension in the real estate industry since the end of last year, especially the continuous good news in the market and the relaxation of the financing environment of real estate enterprises, and the willingness to acquire land has increased compared with the end of last year; On the other hand, thanks to the local initiative to adjust the land supply strategy, optimize the land transfer rules, reduce the threshold of land transfer and transfer profits to real estate enterprises, so as to ensure the smooth land transaction and reduce the flow of auction. For example, the first round of centralized land auction in Beijing this year obviously returned to temperature, and only one piece of land encountered the flow of auction.
However, Ding Zuyu also pointed out that the land market in some second and third tier cities is still in the cold winter, and the phenomenon of land auction is still serious. For example, Tianjin, Fuzhou, Dalian, Taiyuan, Qingyuan, Shanwei and other second and third tier cities have become the main force of auction from January to April this year, mainly due to the sluggish performance of their real estate market, the weak transaction of new houses and the great pressure on the liquidity of most real estate enterprises, The focus of land acquisition is also more focused on cities with low risk of de urbanization, and the land market in these cities is naturally cold.
Ding Zuyu predicted that next, under the influence of actively adjusting the land supply strategy to deal with market changes and good news on the policy side, the local auction of a few key cities in the second quarter may return to temperature. However, subject to the financial pressure of most real estate enterprises, the land market heat in most cities will remain low.
