The delivery volume of new forces in April fell significantly month on month, and the sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) 4 exceeded 100000 vehicles again. The new force of car making released the delivery data in April: 4167 vehicles are expected to be delivered, with a month on month ratio of – 25% / – 62%; Weilai delivered 5074 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 29% / – 49%; Xiaopeng delivered 9002 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 75% / – 42%; Nezha delivered 8813 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 120% / – 27%; 9087 vehicles were delivered for zero running, with a month on month ratio of + 228% / – 10%. In addition, gac-e’an delivered 10212 vehicles in April, with a yoy of + 105% / – 50% Byd Company Limited(002594) 4 month: 106000 vehicles were sold, with a month on month ratio of + 135% / + 1%. Ideal Weilai Xiaopeng ai’an’s delivery fell significantly month on month in April. It is expected that public health events have an impact on the supply chain and delivery Byd Company Limited(002594) in April, the delivery was basically flat month on month, still exceeding 100000 vehicles, with excellent performance. Considering the impact of public health events and the pace of subsequent resumption of work and production, we expect that the overall production and sales of the industry in May will still be affected by the supply chain.
The year-on-year decline in revenue and profit of 22q1 industry narrowed compared with 2021q4, and the profit of 22q1 in passenger car sector increased significantly year-on-year. The revenue / profit of 22q1 industry of Listed Companies in the automobile sector decreased by 5% / 3% year-on-year, and the decline range was narrowed compared with 21q4 (21q4 revenue / profit decreased by 10% / 16% respectively). The improvement in the year-on-year growth rate of 22q1 revenue is mainly due to the improvement in the sales growth rate of the automobile industry (especially passenger cars) compared with 21q4, and the improvement in the year-on-year growth rate of profits. In addition to the income factor, the year-on-year impact of raw materials 22q1 is weakened compared with 21q4 due to the transmission of the industrial chain and price adjustment. 22q1 passenger car revenue increased by 10% and profit increased by 54% year-on-year, mainly due to Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) net profit increased more year-on-year. Looking forward to 22q2, considering the impact of public health events, it is expected that the production and sales of the industry are under pressure and the performance of the sector is under pressure.
Investment suggestion: the negative impact has been priced in the adjustment. After the impact of public health events, the industry is expected to make up for the boom in production and sales at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter. At present, it is suggested to lay out the oversold high-quality targets. At the beginning of the year, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the uncertainty of European automobile supply chain, the rise of upstream bulk commodities and the decline of retail end continued to impact the whole sector, and the automobile sector has made a significant adjustment since the beginning of the year. Since mid March, the impact of public health events has further weakened the sector. We believe that the negative impact has been priced in the sector reduction, and the cost performance and attractiveness are improving after the correction of some high-quality companies. In terms of the rhythm of the following years, through the resumption of the “W” rhythm of the sector under the impact of public health events in 2020, we believe that the end of the second quarter of 2022 is expected to usher in an upward inflection point of sales fundamentals and the sector. At the current time point, it is recommended to choose the opportunity to configure the oversold targets under the negative impact in the early stage, specifically including: 1) Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) (sky curtain trend and trim reverse), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (domain controller), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (integrated die casting and chassis lightweight), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension trend and traditional business reverse), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (IBS is gradually cashed in and traditional business recovers) Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) (traditional businesses enter the recovery cycle, and new businesses such as ADAS and air suspension are gradually realized); 2) Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) (new energy passenger vehicles enter the volume cycle), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (benefit Tesla and North America electric vehicle cycle, integrated supply trend in the intelligent era), Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) (capacity cycle start, capacity release period); 3) Self rising vehicle leaders, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile (covered by Hong Kong stock team). In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to Wuxi Best Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300580) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) .
Warning: the recovery risk of passenger cars is less than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Automotive chips are in short supply again; Public health incidents hit repeatedly.
