Reviewing the performance of 2021 and 2022q1, the Matthew effect on the product side is obvious, and high growth + strong certainty welcomes Davis. 1) Cosmetics: the epidemic has affected the terminal demand of some varieties. The implementation of the new deal has raised the industry access threshold, the speed of new products / brands has slowed down, impulsive entrants have recovered their composure, the competition pattern has been optimized in the short term, and the Matthew effect of the leading brand is obvious.
According to the National Bureau of statistics, the growth rate of zero sales of cosmetics agencies in 2021 was 14%. Due to different base and flow dividend stages, the growth rate slowed down in the second half of the year, with zero sales of 22q1 cosmetics agencies + 1.81% year-on-year; At the same time, according to our statistics, the revenue of Listed Companies in 21 years and 22q1 brands is yoy + 22% / + 16%, and the corresponding profit side growth rate is 22% / 20%. Among them, Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) 2021 / 2022q1 achieved revenue of 4.022 billion yuan / 809 million yuan, yoy + 52.57% / + 59.32%, and Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) / 6 Qiming Information Technology Co.Ltd(002232) 021 / 2022q1 about doubled the revenue of cosmetics business. 2) Yimei: low penetration + high prosperity + strong barriers. The policy is to expand the market capacity of compliant products. Some companies continue to grow with the high growth of product precision cards. With the performance disclosure of relevant listed companies, the impact of policies on the industry is straightened out and the factors suppressing valuation are weakened. In addition, the epidemic occurred in the off-season of medical and beauty in March, the impact is controllable, and the marginal improvement is expected to make up for the demand after the epidemic. According to our statistics, in the past 21 years, the listed company TCM America achieved an income of 46.3 billion yuan / yoy + 12.99%, with an average gross profit margin of 66.25% / yoy-1.68pct, and the average gross profit margin of 22q1 medical America was 68.10% / yoy + 2.79pct Among them, Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) 2021 / 2022q1 achieved revenue of 1.448431 billion yuan, yoy + 104% / + 66.07%.
Some links of the industrial chain are disturbed by many adverse factors, and the dilemma reversal is imminent. Cosmetics raw materials / processors: in 2021, the increase in the cost of raw materials / shipping restrictions / increase in employee salary costs and other reasons dragged down the performance of production and processing and raw material manufacturers. In 2021, the overall revenue of upstream manufacturers was 5.94 billion yuan / yoy.1 billion yuan 8%； The net profit attributable to the parent company was – 680 million yuan / yoy-195%. In 2022q1, many drag items were weakened by active adjustment / passive factors, and the performance margin of some companies was repaired. Among them, Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) : with the recovery of overseas demand / release of new capacity + new category capacity / transfer of price increase, the cost effect has appeared in 2022q1 (revenue 413 million yuan / yoy + 59%, net profit 58 million yuan / + 21%). It is expected that the profit side elasticity will be obvious in 2022 Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) : Huzhou plant is about to be put into operation, and its growth potential is worth looking forward to. On the other hand, due to the impact of the marginal slowdown of online traffic / increased cost investment and customer instability, the performance of agent operation decreased year-on-year. The overall revenue of cosmetics e-commerce operation in 21 years was 5.29 billion yuan / yoy-10.3%. Medical and American terminal service providers: the epidemic situation in 2021 + advertising law affected the acquisition of new customers in a short time, and the performance was under pressure; At the same time, clear access standards + cooling of new capital, and obvious valuation adjustment. Mature “players” are still running horses and enclosure. China and South Korea have accelerated the development of outpatient departments in the province. In the past 21 years, the outpatient departments of friendship Plastic Surgery Hospital of Nanjing Medical University in Suzhou and Nantong have been officially opened. Langzi has added 9 Jingfu Yimei and 1 Milan Baiyu store. As the new stores enter the mature stage + the epidemic situation is alleviated, it is expected to usher in a performance inflection point on the basis of low base in the second half of the year.
Overseas giants still maintain rapid growth, and the industry has no worries about long-term growth. 1) Cosmetics: in 2021, L’Oreal Group achieved revenue of 32.29 billion euros / yoy + 15.3% and net profit of 4.6 billion euros / yoy + 28.9%. The revenue of L’Oreal Group in 2022q1 was yoy + 19%, the highest increase in the same period in recent 15 years, and the growth of high-end skin care / active skin care products / professional hairdressing was + 20%. 2) Medical Aesthetics: in 2021, the revenue of aierjian’s global aesthetic portfolio doubled, and Botox and Qiao Yadeng increased at the same time.
2022q1 achieved revenue of USD 1.374 billion / yoy + 20.4%.
Investment suggestion: 21 years and 22q1 of the industry chain of the 21st year and 22q1 of the 21st year and 22q1 of the 21st year and 22q1 of the high growth performance in some parts of the industrial chain chain proved the track’s “long slope and thick snow” attribute. Some companies are not afraid of inflation and slowing macroeconomic growth, some companies are not afraid of inflation and slowing macroeconomic growth. Pressure to get alpha is obvious, and the ability to get alpha is obvious. Recommended performance q2q22 is expected to continue. High growth is expected to continue. High growth in recommended q2q2q2q2 is expected to continue. Rising Panda Dairy Corporation(300898) 9896 q2q2 is expected to continue. Rising Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) \ , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) 。
Risk tip: the overall consumer demand is weak; Industry competition intensifies.
