Demand: beautiful scenery and upward prosperity. China: in the first quarter, China's photovoltaic installed capacity maintained a growth trend. In 2022q1, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity reached 13.21gw, a year-on-year increase of 147.8%, including 4.34gw for centralized and 8.87gw for distributed Overseas: the demand for PV in Europe increased sharply due to multiple factors, and the installed capacity increased by 22 years to 45-50gw According to the survey of the industrial chain, the overseas market is highly prosperous at present, and the tolerance of high-priced components is improving. China's distributed continues to improve. The production scheduling in April and may is improved month on month. The performance of photovoltaic related enterprises in the second quarter is expected to continue to grow month on month after the off-season in the first quarter. In the second half of the year, the price center of the industrial chain decreased, and the demand continued to accelerate month on month. At present, the bidding speed in China is accelerated, and the centralized power stations in South America, the Middle East and other places are waiting for the volume. The high boom in Europe and America is expected to continue. On the premise of raising the expectation of new installed capacity of 10GW + PV in Europe, we expect the global PV installed capacity demand to reach 240gw in 22 years, with a growth rate of about 55%.
Industrial chain: the price remains high and the battery technology iteration is imminent: at the silicon material end, due to the high demand at the downstream of Q2, the silicon material price is expected to remain at a high level. By the end of April, the price of polysilicon compact material is 249 yuan / kg. With the gradual increase of new capacity, the silicon material price is expected to enter the downward channel by the end of the third quarter of 2022. At the silicon wafer end, due to the high price of silicon material and the shortage of quartz crucible, the price of silicon wafer continues to rise, and the second and third tier silicon wafer manufacturers are facing the pressure of raw material supply. The leader is expected to increase the market share through the supply chain management and control ability. At the battery end, the current technology iteration in the battery link is accelerated, and leading manufacturers such as Longji and Jingke accelerate the layout of new technologies respectively. From the perspective of component bidding, the average premium of TOPCON battery bidding projects in China is more than 0.1 yuan / W, and the downstream owners have a high acceptance of the premium of components equipped with new battery technology. In terms of auxiliary materials, from Q1 of the 21st year, diamond wire, backplane, inverter and other links have good profitability and are expected to continue; The profitability of adhesive film, junction box and other links was under pressure in the first quarter, and Q2 is expected to improve.
Export and installation data: in terms of export data, the export amount of battery components and inverters in March was 26.2/3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 86.5/51.8%. In a single quarter, the export amount of Q1 components and inverters reached 72.9/8.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 101% / 29%. It has been verified that it is not light in the off-season. According to the calculation, the export of Q1 components is about 41gw, with a year-on-year increase of 64%, including 11gw in India, with a year-on-year increase of 215%. European exports maintained a high growth trend, with exports increasing by 85% year-on-year in the first quarter.
Under the premise of continuous production expansion of PV technology, enterprises are expected to enjoy the advantages of reducing production and increasing production ratio in the same year, and it is expected that the PV industry will continue to enjoy the positive growth of Q2 technology. Main line 1: recommend integrated module enterprises Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Jingke energy, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , benefiting from the upward demand for photovoltaic Q2 and the year-on-year increase in shipments; Inverter enterprises Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Hemai, etc; Two mainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainmainline two: looking to the second, third and fourth quarter, the fourth quarter of the year to look to the second, third, the fourth quarter, the fourth quarter, the fourth quarter of the third quarter, the fourth quarter, the fourth quarter, the third quarter, the fourth quarter, the fourth quarter, a stable pattern, enjoying the high PV boom, enjoying the high PV boom, and enjoying the good PV boom and the continued good profitability, while the profitability and profitability of the high PV boom, and the continued good profitability, and the continued good profitability. Enjoying the high PV boom boom, and the continued to enjoy the high PV boom, and the continued to enjoy the good profitability of the high PV boom, and the continued to enjoy the good profitability of the accessories. The accessories leading to enjoy the good. The accessories. The Poten Environment Group Co.Ltd(603603) Poten Environment Group Co.Ltd(603603) 808080808080808066 wait. Main line 3: the curtain of battery technology reform is opened, and relevant manufacturers are expected to enjoy the technology premium. Jingke energy and Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ; Pay attention to Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , etc. At the same time, the supporting facilities of other links of the industrial chain are also very important. Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , etc. are recommended; Pay attention to the photovoltaic silver paste silver clad copper industry chain. Others: focus on distributed photovoltaic and BIPV industrial chain.
Risk tips: upstream raw material prices fluctuate, terminal demand is less than expected, and technological development is less than expected
