Under the positive influence of the external market, today (May 5), the two main board indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen opened low and went high. The trend of the whole day fluctuated strongly. Finally, the main board index of Shanghai and Shenzhen ushered in a good start in May; The Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) dragged down the gem index, showing a low opening and low walking throughout the day, with an obvious pattern of weakness. On the whole, the market presents a pattern of shock and differentiation.
In this regard, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities mentioned that although the external risk disturbance is still in progress, the focus should return to China's steady growth. Although the epidemic has disturbed China's economic development, the tone of China's steady growth will continue to work on the policy side, and investors' concerns will return to China's fundamentals. The dawn has come. We need to wait patiently for the policy to work, and investors' expectations and confidence are restored.
At the same time, Kaiyuan Securities said that the rebound in May could be expected, but the reversal has not yet arrived, leaving aside the bottom, we still need to be cautious; If there is a reversal market, based on our style framework, the main line of A-Shares is expected to switch to growth. In May, it is suggested that 60% of the attack growth and 40% of the defense value. Specific allocation of growth attribute cycle, post epidemic cycle and mandatory consumption.
sector:
I. building energy conservation
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that the importance of infrastructure is still prominent, and the sub sector with a high proportion of infrastructure is expected to benefit directly. Grasp the relative certainty and prompt the growth leader with deep callback of layout valuation. As the impact of weak demand + high cost continues and the credit risk has not completely disappeared, we expect the profits of the building materials sector to be significantly differentiated in the first half of the year. Therefore, we still suggest to grasp the relative certainty in the uncertain macro environment, such as some stocks that are relatively decoupled from real estate, have limited credit risk exposure and stronger bargaining power. After the signal of improvement in demand certainty and further clearing of impairment risk in the second half of the year, some leaders with strong medium-term growth, solid fundamentals and deep phased valuation correction also have outstanding allocation value.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) mentioned that at present, the cost side is still high and the delivery is affected by the epidemic. The profitability of the consumer building materials sector is still under pressure in the short term. We continue to wait for the fundamental turning point. Considering the resumption of work after the epidemic is alleviated and the early price rise is transmitted to the terminal, we pay attention to Q2 or the turning point. In the medium term, the risks of the real estate chain are gradually released, and the room for the rise of raw material prices is limited. With the enhancement of the scale effect of high-quality leaders (national capacity and channel construction), channel reform (overweight small B or C), product structure optimization (category expansion or system integration), the endogenous growth momentum still exists, and the impact brought by upstream and downstream industrial factors may be gradually weakened. In the long run, the clearing of the consumer building materials market will be accelerated, the industry concentration will continue to improve, and the competition pattern will be further optimized. Continue to recommend the leader of the first echelon of the strong HENGQIANG, and pay attention to the dilemma reversal of the second tier leader who underestimates the value.
In addition, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that they are optimistic about the recovery of infrastructure investment in 2022. In terms of companies, it is suggested to pay attention to several main lines: (1) undervalued construction central enterprises: China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , with high dividend rate and real estate business valuation and repair space; Q1 order exceeds the expected China Railway Group Limited(601390) ; China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , with more BOT assets; (2) Building transformation: Transformation of green power operation Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and transformation of chemical industry China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) ; (3) High growth local state-owned enterprises: focus on Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) etc; (4) Steel structure: it is expected that the prosperity will continue to improve, such as the steel structure processing leader ( Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) ) and Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) with new breakthroughs in BIPV.
II. Home appliance industry
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) pointed out that in recent years, the home appliance industry has withstood external tests such as epidemic situation and cost, but the advantages of high-quality leaders in anti risk ability are prominent, and their performance has shown valuable toughness; At present, the improvement trend of the industry's operating margin is determined, superimposing the valuation and position level at the bottom of history, and the allocation of oversold high-quality stocks is at the right time; Maintain the "optimistic" rating of the industry and continue to recommend Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co.Ltd(603187) ; Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) ; And Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) and other targets of small household appliance track.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that it is expected that all parts of China are expected to gradually strengthen the activities of using consumer vouchers, replacing old ones with new ones and sending home appliances to the countryside, and the categories of home appliances covered will be gradually transferred from household appliances to emerging home appliances, so as to promote the renewal of home appliances and the release of new demand. On the category side, with the easing of the epidemic in China and the continuous landing of household appliance consumption stimulus, we expect that China's major household appliances with high penetration (such as air and ice washing, smoke stove and color TV), major small household appliances (such as rice cookers and microwave ovens) and emerging categories with relatively low retention (such as floor sweepers and projectors) are expected to benefit.
In addition, the agency further analyzed that in view of the recent intensive measures taken by many ministries and commissions to expand the effective supply of green and low-carbon consumer products, improve the recycling and treatment system of used cars and household appliances, and encourage the development of new business forms and new models such as "Internet + recycling", we expect that this year will be a year for China's household appliance manufacturing industry to transform into a comprehensive green and energy-saving industry, with consumers' increasing awareness of environmental protection and energy conservation, The energy-saving household appliances listed in the list of green household appliances are expected to become the main sales force, which is good for the sales volume of relevant enterprises.
In terms of investment suggestions, [ Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ] (China's refrigerator / freezer business accounted for 20% of operating profit in 2021, which may be upgraded or new purchase demand in the short term due to the continuous epidemic), [ Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ] (real estate + second curve), [ Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) ] (real estate + fast growth), [ Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) ] (cleaning leader, the peak season is approaching) [ Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ] (fundamental recovery + overseas profit improvement, and there may be new demand for the short-term epidemic), [ Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) ] (fundamental recovery, and there may be new demand for the short-term epidemic), [ Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) ] (low base in the second quarter + exchange rate depreciation is good for exports).
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