[strategic view]
At present, the PE valuation of A-Shares has been reduced to 18.6 times, slightly 10% higher than the valuation bottom in 2012 and 2018. The allocation value is gradually highlighted. It is expected that the valuation bottom will appear before the profit bottom.
The working meeting of the Political Bureau set the tone to ensure market liquidity. The yield of China’s ten-year Treasury bond is expected to remain stable at the interest rate center of 2.85% – 2.95% in May.
The rapid depreciation of RMB exchange rate is mainly to stimulate the foreign trade economy, and the subsequent range slows down. Q2 it is expected that the interest rate spread between China and the United States will operate within 0 to – 15bp. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine overseas may be renegotiated in May, bringing a relatively stable external environment to a shares.
The growth rate of 2022q1 financial report quarter is high, and it is lithium battery, new energy vehicle, semiconductor and other advanced technology tracks.
The new energy track with the highest viewing atmosphere: in March 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 465000 and 484000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 25.4% and 43.9%, a year-on-year increase of 110% and a market share of 21.7%. The growth rate of power battery production continued to rise month on month from January to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 247% in March, which is expected to drive the valuation and repair of individual stocks in lithium resources, new energy vehicles, core parts and other fields.
[may strategy combination]
Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) . SZ): the company’s valuation is significantly lower than that of other links in the lithium battery industry chain. The company has clear growth and outstanding competitiveness.
Byd Company Limited(002594) ( Byd Company Limited(002594) . SZ): take the lead in completing the new energy transformation of product structure, the iteration of self-developed technology of the whole stack, the leap of product power, pure electricity / plug-in mixing and driving the product cycle, and continue to benefit from the dividend of electric intelligent development.
Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ( Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) . SH): leading in the field of light control segmentation, with high-quality customers and continuous expansion to the world, automotive electronics has made great progress, expanded into the field of intelligent domain controller and opened up the space for intelligent increment.
Tencent Holdings (00700. HK): Chinese games and advertising are greatly affected by policies and economic environment, and the growth of fintech business is still strong. We believe that due to the impact of policies and macro-economy, Tencent’s China Games, value-added services, advertising and other businesses are under pressure in the short term, but the company’s long-term moat and commercialization potential remain unchanged, and overseas games, video numbers, financial technology and enterprise services are expected to bring new increment.
Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) ( Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) . SZ): the company has obvious core advantages in the field of ladder media and cinema screen advertising media, continuous optimization of customer structure, improvement of cost control ability, and initial results in cost reduction and efficiency increase. The short-term epidemic disturbance does not change the long-term value of the company.
[risk tips]
Market liquidity risk
Risk of earnings falling short of expectations
