Key investment points
2022q1 quarterly report: the growth rate of A-share income and profit is under pressure, and the performance boom is widely differentiated
As of May 3, all the first quarterly reports of A-Shares have been basically disclosed. The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarterly report of A-Shares is 4.99%, which is significantly lower than the growth rate of 18.92% in 2021, and the profit pressure is obvious. In terms of subdivided industries, semiconductors and the cycle sector represented by energy performed well, which was mainly affected by the high prosperity of relevant industries and the energy supply gap caused by geopolitical disturbances. The year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to parent companies in the first quarter was 91.60% and 54.11% respectively. In terms of valuation, among the industries with outstanding performance in the first quarter, pharmaceutical biotechnology is not life science, semiconductor is not semiconductor production equipment, materials and energy are at the low valuation level in recent two or three years. At present, the market risk appetite has shown signs of bottoming out, and the risk premium rate is at an all-time high. It is recommended to pay attention to high-performance and cost-effective stocks in the sector with high outlook and valuation at an all-time low.
Study and judgment of the general trend: the meeting of the Political Bureau will stabilize confidence, and the A-share red can be expected in May
Last week, the A-share market bottomed out and rebounded, showing a V-shaped trend. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee maintained the annual economic growth target and stressed that "stabilizing growth, employment and prices" injected a booster into the market, and the market sentiment improved significantly.
At the liquidity level, northbound funds bought a net amount of 5.114 billion yuan last week for three consecutive weeks. From the perspective of still subdivided industries, the northward capital continued to increase the warehouse of power equipment for five weeks; It mainly flows out of the banking, steel and architectural decoration sectors, and has a certain degree of correction to the positions of the sectors related to steady growth.
At the policy level, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee once again put forward the supporting policy. On April 29, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee put forward that the current economic situation is grim, which once again shows the determination to "stabilize growth, employment and prices". We should strengthen macro policy regulation to stabilize the economy and strive to achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5.5%, which means that the space for monetary and financial policies in the second quarter will be further opened and will be accelerated. At the same time, the meeting put forward relevant requirements on strengthening infrastructure construction, promoting consumption, expanding domestic demand, maintaining supply and price of energy resources, and supporting local real estate to relax regulation due to urban policies, which effectively boosted market confidence.
Looking forward to the future, we believe that under the condition that the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee can effectively boost market confidence, it is expected to continue the rebound trend before the festival. In the future, we suggest paying attention to the following two deterministic main lines of positive policies:
1) the performance supported by the steady growth policy is expected to continue to dominate the sector. The meeting of the central finance and Economic Commission on April 26 and the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 29 repeatedly stressed the comprehensive strengthening of infrastructure construction and proposed to promote infrastructure investment in the short term. The infrastructure chain is still the deterministic main line with clear and favorable policies. Through the sorting of the first quarterly report, the performance growth rate is basically unstable, and the growth policy direction is highly related, including coal, utilities, etc. We are optimistic about the sectors with supported performance such as real estate, infrastructure and energy, building materials and construction machinery related to the industrial chain under the support of stable growth policies.
2) the consumer sector benefiting from the post epidemic repair market and promotion fee policy. The epidemic has repeatedly suppressed terminal consumption. With the marginal improvement of the local epidemic, the general office of the State Council issued 20 measures to promote consumption last week, involving new energy vehicles, smart appliances, rental housing and other aspects. Expanding domestic demand has become the top priority at present. The first quarter earnings of consumer service related industries slowed significantly (not compared with the results of 2021 and the third quarter of 2021), which was mainly affected by the repeated epidemic. According to past experience, the consumer industry damaged after each round of epidemic easing will usher in a one month left history stage repair market. Under the background of the improvement of the current local epidemic and the implementation of local promotion fee policies, the certainty of consumption recovery will further increase. It is suggested that the current focus should be on the consumer sectors with defensive attributes such as food and beverage and medicine, as well as the individual stock targets that are expected to be repaired due to the severe damage caused by the epidemic in the early stage and the expected improvement of the post epidemic prosperity in the sectors of social services, retail and household appliances.
Less than expected growth of epidemic situation, less than expected geopolitical disturbance and more than expected risk of landing prevention and control
