The epidemic affects social consumption, and consumption vouchers may stimulate or help steady growth
Since March 2022, China's covid-19 epidemic has been repeated, the downward pressure on China's economy has increased, the social zero data is less than expected, and the optional consumption of gold, silver, jewelry, clothing, furniture and cars has dropped significantly. In the context of weak domestic demand and economic pressure, countries usually introduce consumption stimulus policies. Compared with cash subsidies in developed countries, the savings rate of Chinese residents is higher, and the Chinese government prefers to use consumption vouchers and other forms. Consumption coupons are directional and adjustable. At present, the source of funds for the issuance of consumption coupons by local governments in China is the combination of government financial subsidies and enterprises' own profit transfer. While boosting consumption, they help enterprises boost the growth of terminal passenger flow and customer orders with a small amount of funds.
China: long-term stimulation of household appliances and automobiles, short-term stimulation of catering, retail, culture and Tourism
In China's history, the three rounds of large-scale consumption stimulus policies were mainly implemented under the background of weak domestic demand and the economy is in a downward cycle. From the perspective of long-term development of the national economy, we selected household electrical appliance and automobile national enterprises with long industrial chain, high social zero share and low penetration rate to provide financial subsidies, leverage domestic demand with high consumption of consumer goods and promote the double growth of performance and valuation of relevant enterprises. In the context of covid-19 epidemic in 2020, in order to boost domestic demand, all localities have launched consumption voucher stimulus policies to boost short-term consumption. In terms of industry tendency, the more severely damaged industries under the epidemic, the greater the intensity of issuing consumption vouchers and the greater the elasticity of recovery; In terms of sector market, the three major consumption segments of mandatory consumption, optional consumption and services all ushered in a phased rise after the inflection point of the epidemic.
Stone from another mountain: Japan's cash subsidies flow into savings, and the United States has high incentives to stimulate retail sales
Japanese residents have the habit of regular savings, and the payment of cash subsidies has limited stimulation to the overall consumption of the country. Under the condition of slow retail growth, the companies with rapid growth during the epidemic period are mainly industrial and game industries. American residents tend to save more at the beginning of cash subsidies rather than spend immediately; After the implementation of the large amount of cash subsidy in March 2021, the epidemic prevention policy tends to be relaxed and the shopping convenience is improved. Residents' consumption in non essential consumer industries such as e-shopping and mail order, sports goods, building materials and materials, new car sales and so on has increased significantly compared with that before the epidemic, which is transmitted to the stock market, which is reflected in the high increase in the share price of semiconductor equipment / franchised retailers.
Investment advice
(1) industries and companies seriously damaged in the epidemic, including catering, department stores, supermarkets, scenic spots and other industries and companies with large income in East China. It is suggested to pay attention to China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) , jiumaojiu in catering industry, Junting hotel in hotel industry, Shanghai Xujiahui Commercial Co.Ltd(002561) , Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) , supermarket industry, and Haichang Ocean Park in scenic spot industry. (2) For specific consumer categories, we can focus on industries with serious damage to social zero data in March, obvious impact on social zero data and high leverage effect. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Huali group in textile and garment industry, Hla Group Corp.Ltd(600398) , Wuhu Fuchun Dye And Weave Co.Ltd(605189) , etc. (3) Baima consumer company, which has high anti risk ability but is affected by the epidemic, has a valuation at the bottom of history. It's recommended to focus on the following suggestions: focus on the Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) etc.
Risk tips
The progress of epidemic prevention and control is less than expected; The risk of macroeconomic growth falling short of expectations; The business condition of the enterprise is lower than the expected risk; Risk of rising raw material prices; Exchange rate fluctuation risk; The competition pattern intensifies.
