Social service sector: the performance of 2021 annual report has recovered significantly, and 22q1 is under pressure due to the impact of the epidemic. Annual report of 2021: the social service sector achieved a revenue of 188094 billion yuan / yoy + 22.75%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 3.759 billion yuan, yoy + 44.00%. Among them, the revenue growth rate of people’s service / service integration / tourism retail / scenic spots / catering industry ranked among the top five, the performance of tourism retail (duty-free) / human resources service industry was excellent, and the hotel industry turned losses. 22q1: the social service sector achieved a revenue of 41.287 billion yuan / yoy + 0.92%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 983 million yuan / yoy-52.49%; 22q1 affected by the epidemic, only the revenue of sub industries such as human services / online education / Catering / hotel increased; The parent net profit of tourism retail / online education / human resources industry remained positive.
Tax exemption: the long-term logic is stable and the leading barrier is deep; In March, the epidemic affected the passenger flow, and it is expected that the boom repair and the reduction of discounts will improve the profitability and maintain the recommendation. Since March, due to the impact of the epidemic, the duty-free sales of Hainan outlying islands have decreased year-on-year, but the discount of 22q1 company has gradually narrowed and the development has changed to “quality first”. We are optimistic about the barriers of China tax exemption in product richness / first mover advantage / scale advantage / operation. In the medium and short term, with the recovery of passenger flow, the company’s revenue and gross profit margin are expected to continue to improve.
Hotel: affected by the epidemic, the operation is under pressure, the opening of the store is generally stable, the logic continues, the vacation products continue to be popular, and the recommendation is maintained. Since 2021, affected by the spread of the epidemic in China, the operating data of the three leading hotel groups of Jinjiang / Huazhu / ShouLv have been under pressure, but the opening of stores is generally stable, continuing the long logic of improving the competition pattern / leading concentration. The smaller Junting benefited from the earlier layout of the isolated Hotel 22q1rvpar, with a year-on-year + 5%, realizing a net profit of 3.925 million to its parent. It also expanded its stores and accelerated its speed under the upsurge of vacation travel, and is optimistic about its store expansion and performance flexibility in the future Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) relies on diversified business layout to achieve revenue growth / performance loss reduction.
Catering: due to the direct impact of the epidemic, the leader is dormant and accumulates strength. It is suggested to pay attention to the brand with strong resilience of the store model and the inflection point of fundamentals. The epidemic had a direct impact on the catering sector, the zero growth rate of catering agencies remained low for a long time, and Haidilao and other leaders entered the closing / adjustment cycle: relatively speaking, the Helens / jiumaojiu store model maintained good toughness, single store sales were relatively stable, and opened against the trend in the 21st year. 22q1 affected by the epidemic in March, the operation data of major catering brands are under pressure. Taier / Helens / Naixue still maintained the goal of expanding 150 / 300 / 350 stores in the whole year, which is optimistic that it has great performance repair flexibility.
Scenic spot: affected by the epidemic situation and under pressure, it is suggested to pay attention to the target with obvious product improvement and growth logic. In 2021, the net profit of the scenic spot industry deducted from non return to the parent was -708 million, which significantly reduced the loss under the background of the relative easing of the epidemic situation; During the epidemic period, the trend of tourism consumption has also developed, peripheral tourism / leisure tourism has been sought after, and the new operation mode / channel marketing has also become the focus of targeting new consumer groups. Optimistic about the operation and restoration of the targets in the surrounding scenic areas such as China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) gubeishui town / Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) and so on under the recovery of Q2 epidemic; In the medium and long term, the Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) / the Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) / the Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) with the ability of remote expansion / the Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) / the optimization and adjustment of endogenous operation deserve attention.
People’s service: the performance maintains high growth, and the digital leader makes efforts to shape the long-term growth space. The net profit of the parent company increased by 22y + 5.3 billion yuan / year; Affected by the superimposed epidemic situation in the off-season, the second month on month growth of flexible workers is under pressure. However, in the medium and long term, the high growth of flexible workers market and the deepening of digitization of human resources market will maintain the high growth / deepening of barriers. We continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term growth prospects of Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) and the recovery opportunities under the slowdown and recovery of Q2 epidemic.
Investment suggestion: Despite the short-term pressure on the prosperity of the travel chain and human services sector under the influence of the epidemic, the medium and long-term logic is still stable. It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation repair brought by the stabilization of China’s epidemic situation in Q2, and it is suggested to choose the Dragon head target of stable growth logic / improvement of competition pattern / provision of high-quality supply.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Repeated outbreaks exceed the expected risk; Industry competition intensifies risks.
