A week's events
China: the introduction of heavy documents to promote consumption ushers in major opportunities for new and old infrastructure. On April 25, the closing prices of onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar rose to 6.56 and 6.57 respectively, and the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point that night. The devaluation of RMB is mainly caused by the differentiation of monetary policies between China and the United States and China's economic fundamentals. It is expected that the devaluation pressure will remain high in the short term. This round may rise to about 6.6-6.8, but in the medium term, it will return to the track of two-way fluctuations; On the 25th, the State Council issued the "opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting sustainable recovery of consumption", which put forward 20 measures from five aspects, showing the characteristics of giving consideration to both long and short-term, which will help to fully release China's consumption potential. New consumption, silver economy, green consumption and rural consumption deserve attention; On the 25th, the person in charge of relevant departments of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission interpreted the previously released opinions on the banking and insurance industry supporting the high-quality development of highway transportation, including the five major support for highway transportation financing, which will help expand the effective investment in the field of highway transportation, enhance the ability of highway transportation enterprises to deal with the epidemic, reduce the compliance obstacles of special debt supporting financing, and promote the accelerated expansion of REITs of transportation infrastructure; On the 25th, the four departments introduced the opinions of the general office of the State Council on promoting the development of individual pension. The individual pension system has three characteristics: government policy support, individual voluntariness and market-oriented operation. The follow-up Ministry of human resources and social security, the Ministry of finance, the China Banking and insurance Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will further improve relevant regulations and rules and speed up the implementation of the individual pension system; On the 27th, the central financial and Economic Commission stressed the need to comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction and build a modern infrastructure system. It suggested paying attention to the two directions of short-term traditional infrastructure upgrading and medium and long-term digital infrastructure. At the same time, the demand for infrastructure financing is also expanding. It is conservatively estimated that the annual infrastructure investment will reach more than 5%.
Overseas: the Bank of Japan continues its "super easing", and the problem of inflation in Europe is still difficult to alleviate. On April 20 local time, macron defeated Le Pen and won the second round of French presidential election. After re-election, macron will maintain policy coherence, promote economic and employment development internally, further shape European independence externally and enhance France's leadership in the EU. On June 11, France will hold the first round of national assembly elections to determine the composition of the government, and the subsequent economic recovery is still accompanied by great uncertainty; On the 26th, the Japanese government planned to spend 6.2 trillion yen on additional gasoline subsidies, low interest loans and cash assistance. On the 28th, the Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged and will also buy the necessary amount of 10-year Japanese government bonds with no upper limit. The ultra loose monetary policy led to the weakening of the yen again; On the 26th, the IMF lowered its Asian economic growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 4.9%, mainly due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the repeated epidemic and the tightening of the global financing environment. It suggested that China should focus on financial support measures and shift the focus of financial support to families; On the 26th local time, both Bulgaria and Poland said they had received the notice that Russia would suspend the supply of natural gas to the two countries from the 27th. On the same day, the World Bank predicted that energy prices would rise by more than 50% in 2022. Although the weather warmed up and the demand for energy eased, under the increased sanctions and the slow progress of diversification of energy sources, inflation in Europe may remain high; On the 27th local time, Lagarde said that the European Central Bank will be committed to achieving the price target, and the policy of the European Central Bank may gradually tighten.
High frequency data: upstream: Brent crude oil fell 12.30% month on month, while iron ore and cathode copper rose 8.63% and 1.65% month on month; Midstream: the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel plant increased by 5.16 percentage points this month, and the price of thermal coal fell by 4.60% month on month; Downstream: real estate sales fell by 15.55% month on month, and the monthly performance of automobile retail is relatively weak; Prices: vegetables fell 7.58% month on month and pork rose 1.37% month on month.
Focus next week: actual retail sales in Germany in March and Markit manufacturing PMI in euro zone in April (Monday); Germany's unemployment rate in April (Tuesday); ADP employment in April and trade account in March; The Federal Reserve, the central banks of the United Kingdom, Brazil and Norway announced interest rate resolutions, and China's Caixin service industry PMI in April (Thursday); Us non farm payrolls in April (Friday).
Risk tip: the epidemic situation has further deteriorated, the geopolitical impact has exceeded expectations, and overseas inflation is high.
