Event: on April 30, 2022, the National Bureau of statistics released the PMI data of April 2022. April manufacturing pmi47 4%, former 49.5%; Non manufacturing pmi41 9%, the former value was 48.4%.
Core view:
Affected by the epidemic, the manufacturing PMI continued to fall in April, and the service PMI fell sharply to the low boom range of 40%. First, the current round of epidemic situation has many points and a wide range, strict sealing and control measures, and an increase in enterprises that reduce production and stop production; Second, the market demand continues to decline, and the internal and external demand weakens; Third, the logistics transportation is not smooth, and the finished product inventory index has risen to a high point in recent years; Fourth, the price index continues to operate at a high level, and the pressure on downstream enterprises is increasing.
Looking ahead, the recent epidemic situation in Shanghai has tended to ease, the resumption of work and production of key enterprises has been continuously promoted, and the smooth and stable chain has been gradually solved. At the April Politburo meeting, the target of 5.5% was firmly established, and a series of positive arrangements were made on real estate, platform economy and infrastructure to comprehensively expand domestic demand and inject a boost into the real economy and capital market.
Overseas observation: the US 10-year Treasury bond yields and inflation expectations both declined slightly, while the UK and Germany 10-year Treasury bond yields declined; The interest rate term spread of 10-year and 2-year treasury bonds increased slightly. The asset scale of the Federal Reserve decreased, while the asset scale of the European Central Bank and the Central Bank of Japan increased.
Overseas policy: Biden asked the US Congress to approve US $33 billion in supplementary funds to aid Ukraine; Cases of severe acute hepatitis in children of unknown etiology continue to increase in Europe; Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered to extend the export restrictions of Russian chemical fertilizer until August 31; According to the CDC, about 58% of Americans have been infected with covid-19 virus; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that Ukraine has not officially withdrawn from the negotiation process with Russia.
Global assets: most global stock markets fell and most commodity prices fell. The NASDAQ fell 3.93%, the S & P 500 fell 3.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.47%; European stock markets were divided, with France CAC40 down 0.72%, Germany DAX down 0.31% and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.30%. Asian stock markets were divided, with the Shanghai composite index falling 1.29%, the Hang Seng index rising 2.18%, the Korea composite index falling 0.36% and the Nikkei 225 falling 0.95%. In terms of commodity prices, zinc and aluminum prices fell significantly, precious metal prices generally fell, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices rose and fell.
Central bank observation: the Federal Reserve enters the silence period before the policy meeting in May, and the European Central Bank may raise interest rates this summer.
China Watch: since April, upstream: crude oil prices have fallen month on month, the average price of thermal coal has remained flat month on month, the average price of coking coal has risen month on month, and copper and aluminum prices have fallen month on month. Midstream: the cement price index increased month on month, the rebar price increased month on month, and the inventory decreased year on year. Downstream: the decline of commercial housing transaction area expanded, the year-on-year growth rate of supply area decreased, the price of pigs rose and the price of vegetables fell. Liquidity: the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds rose.
China's policy: the general office of the State Council issued the opinions on further releasing consumption potential and promoting sustainable recovery of consumption; The CSRC issued the opinions on accelerating the high-quality development of the public fund industry; The national standing committee pointed out that we should coordinate the epidemic prevention and control, ensure the smooth supply of logistics, and smooth the international logistics in China; The central bank has set up re loans for scientific and technological innovation to guide financial institutions to increase their support for scientific and technological innovation; China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd. issued a notice on reducing the charging standard of stock transaction transfer fee.
Next week's financial calendar: new non farm employment in the United States in April (Wednesday)
Risk tip: the implementation of the policy is less than expected, and the repeated epidemic situation is more than expected.
