Cosmetics: performance differentiation, preferred high growth leader. The industry boom is under short-term pressure, waiting for the epidemic to repair. After the epidemic, the growth rate of retail sales of cosmetics continued to pick up, and the consumption disturbed by the epidemic in March was under pressure. The growth rate of retail sales disturbed by the epidemic in March of 22 years was negative year-on-year. The growth rate of zero sales of cosmetics decreased by 6.3% year-on-year, and the overall growth rate of zero sales of cosmetics decreased by 3.5% in the same period. Since the beginning of the year, the online sales of cosmetics have declined year-on-year due to the impact of the epidemic. Alibaba platform cosmetics Gmv 21q2-21q4 fluctuated greatly year-on-year. In March 22, under the influence of the epidemic situation in the second half of the month after the superposition of the high base in the same period of 21 years, the decline expanded, and the sales of skin care and cosmetics in March decreased by 18.5% and 24.8% year-on-year respectively. Taking the data of Tiktok platform as an example, we calculated the repair space of cosmetics consumption demand after the epidemic: under the expectation that the comprehensive recovery of logistics in mid May, the introduction of new products + the improvement of sales area will drive the increase of average price, it is expected that the Gmv of the platform is expected to increase by 40% month on month, warming up 618. Cosmetics sector performance differentiation, head brand sales growth is bright. In 2021, the cosmetics sector achieved a total revenue of 54.034 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. In a single quarter, the cosmetics sector of 22q1 continued to increase rapidly driven by leading enterprises, Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) ranked first.
Medical and beauty sector: regulatory and product driven, the leading strong is always strong. We will continue to tighten the supervision of medical enterprises and focus on product compliance. From 2021 to now, the impact of offline epidemic has continued, with stricter supervision of 21h2 industry, greatly raising the industry access threshold, and benefiting the leading products and institutions of compliant operation. The terminal demand is rising and the industry boom is picking up. Since 2021, with the rise of consumers’ awareness of medical beauty and the improvement of medical beauty consumption awareness and acceptance, the demand terminal of medical beauty consumption has maintained double-digit rapid growth, the proportion of consumer groups in first tier and new first tier cities has reached 70%, and the penetration rate of low tier cities has gradually increased. The upstream enterprises of Yimei head performed well. In 2021, the overall revenue of the medical and American sector was RMB 11.476 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 62.05%. Among them, Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) medical beauty business has a leading growth rate. 22q1 achieved a total revenue of 13.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.93% (the quarterly data were not split according to the business, which was different from the annual caliber). Among them, the growth rate of Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) 22q1 exceeded 60%. Leading Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) has maintained high growth and high profitability since 2021. Among other enterprises in the product side, Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) medical and beauty products have achieved rapid growth with the support of the new “twin needles”. In addition, Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Sihuan pharmaceutical and other products have been updated in succession in the past 21 years, contributing to a certain performance increment. Under the epidemic situation and stricter supervision, the overall development speed of channel end enterprises slows down and the profitability is under pressure. With the supervision of clearing out non-conforming institutions, the head institutions are expected to further improve the market share by virtue of extension expansion.
Investment suggestion: the medical beauty and cosmetics sectors have shown significant differentiation. The performance growth of leading enterprises at the brand and product end is bright and their profitability is high, driving the improvement of the valuation of the sector. In the cosmetics sector, the leading enterprises Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) etc. have built a moat in terms of brand, product and channel operation, and continue to promote refined operation and maintain a stable pace of innovation promotion. Under the influence of negative factors such as the epidemic, the leading enterprises have better supply chain integration and risk response ability. In the medical and beauty sector, under strict supervision, it is conducive to the increase of the share of head enterprises. The Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) star single product hi body has increased in large quantities without worry under the increase of license advantages. New products such as white angel are expected to further increase in large quantities under the increase of promotion investment. With the increase of policy and product strength, the leading enterprises will always be strong; The integration of the channel side is imminent, and the policy supervision is strengthened, which is good for the head institutions to further improve the market share through extensive M & A expansion, and is optimistic about the performance improvement brought by the post epidemic demand repair of the channel side. It is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) ( Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) . SZ), Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) ( Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) . SH), Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) ( Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) . SZ), Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) ( Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) . SH), etc.
Risk warning: shareholders lift the ban and reduce the selling pressure; The regulatory environment of the industry has changed beyond expectations; Product development and registration risks; Risk of major medical accidents; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The R & D progress is less than expected; The launch of new products is less than expected; The market demand for new products is less than expected; Intensified market competition; Downside risk of product price; Product quality problems; Repeated impact of the epidemic Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) channel sales; Risk of rapid increase in online traffic cost; Major macroeconomic pressure and weak demand.
