Overall review: the cost side pressure is controllable, and the terminal price increase promotes the steady improvement of performance.
1) since 2021, the cost of raw materials and packaging materials has continued to rise. At the same time, the increase of transportation cost has led to significant cost pressure. In 2022, the import price of Q1 barley has increased to 335 US dollars / ton (YoY + 25.7%), the price of corrugated paper is 3888 yuan / ton (YoY + 1.0%), and the transportation cost has increased to 1003 / 1550 with reference to the highway logistics and coastal container freight rate index, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and 59.9%. Benefiting from the cost side price lock in advance and the Spring Festival, the sales volume and performance of 2022q1 stocks increased gratifying. The sales volume of Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) and Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) and Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) increased by 11.7% / 5.3% year-on-year, and the revenue increased by 17.1% / 12.8% year-on-year.
2) in 2021, with the optimization of the product structure of leading liquor enterprises, the ton price continued to rise. Among them, the average sales price of Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) 2021 increased to 4601 yuan / kiloliter simultaneously, an increase of 8.6% compared with 2019.
3) in 2021 and 2022q1, the price increase frequency of leading liquor enterprises increased, and the performance is expected to accelerate under the stabilization of the epidemic Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and China Resources beer raised the price of mainstream products by about 5-10% in 2021, and China Resources raised the price again in 2022, with an increase of 5%.
Performance: the performance of 2021 increased steadily, and the growth rate of 2022q1 was significant.
1) in 2021, the total revenue of beer on behalf of listed companies was 101584 billion yuan (YoY + 9.7%), and in 2022q1, the total revenue was 17.141 billion yuan (YoY + 8.0%), an increase of 30.8% compared with 2019q1.
2) the gross profit margin remained stable as a whole. In 2021, leading liquor enterprises hedged the pressure of rising costs through product upgrading and price increase. In 2021, China Resources beer / Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) / Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) gross profit margin was 39.2% / 36.7% / 50.9% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.8pct / – 3.7pct / + 0.3pct.
3) the sales expense rate varies slightly with the launch intensity, and decreases slightly in 2021q1. Q1 in 2022 represents that listed companies except Fujian Yanjing Huiquan Brewery Co.Ltd(600573) have reduced their investment by 2-8pct. The management expense ratio benefited from the steady growth of income and decreased slightly.
4) the net profit attributable to the parent company increased rapidly and the leading large-scale enterprises benefited. The total net profit attributable to the parent company represented by beer in 2021 was 10.729 billion yuan (YoY + 60.6%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 was 1.537 billion yuan (YoY + 1.9%), an increase of 26.4% compared with 2019q1.
Investment Outlook: the trend of high-end is not decreasing. It is expected to usher in a new situation of volume and price improvement in the peak season after the epidemic, and it is optimistic about the fulfillment of leading performance.
Due to the uncertainty of the epidemic situation, the reduction of transportation scope and the damage of offline consumption scenes will still have a restrictive impact on the industry. When Q1 lays a good foundation in 2022, we believe that Q2 is an important node for the fulfillment of the annual performance. With the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention policies, catering business in some areas has resumed, consumer demand has recovered, and the beer sector benefiting from the population economy is expected to gradually usher in the peak season. Looking forward to 2022, the high-end trend will continue, the price increase effect will be superimposed, and the leading companies in the advantageous channel layout will still show strong toughness. 1) In 2022, the cost side pressure is expected to be relieved by upgrading the product structure; 2) Under the stable epidemic situation, the beer industry ushered in the peak season, and the price increase continued to be smoothly transmitted to the terminal; 3) Consumption upgrading makes the post epidemic sales demand release continuously; 4) The scale effect of leading liquor enterprises has continuously optimized the cost side structure and showed strong toughness. It is suggested to pay attention to Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , China Resources beer.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic has led to the catering recovery less than expected; Risk of rising cost side pressure; Changes in the competitive landscape.
