Industry trend: the overall volume and price of the beer industry have risen simultaneously, the trend of high-end is obvious, and the non beer track has been continuously widened. In terms of sales volume, the annual beer output in 2021 was 35.624 million kiloliters, up 4.4% year-on-year in 2020 and down 5.4% year-on-year in 2019. In terms of ton price, the ton price of major beer enterprises in 2021 increased by 9.29% year-on-year compared with that in 2020, and the ton price growth rate of the beer industry in the same period was 3.30%. The growth rate of leading enterprises was higher than the industry average level, and the pace of high-end production was faster. In terms of product structure, major beer companies accelerated the layout of ultra-high-end products and continuously promoted the upgrading of product structure. China Resources beer / Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) / Budweiser Asia Pacific launched ultra-high-end products at a price of 1000 yuan respectively, opening the price ceiling of the industry. In terms of cross-border layout, under the background that the beer industry has entered the era of stock competition, core liquor enterprises have stepped up non beer segments to seek new performance growth points.
Summary of 2021 annual report: the performance has increased steadily, and the cost pressure remains. Revenue side: in 2021, the operating revenue of major beer enterprises increased by 5% – 20%, of which Budweiser Asia Pacific and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) achieved 20%. The product structure has been continuously optimized, and the proportion of sales of high-end products has increased, driving the ton price upward. Budweiser Asia Pacific West / China Resources beer / Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) / Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) / Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) / Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) / achieved a ton price of 4589.8/3019.8/3741.8/4601.5/3361.6/3090.6 yuan / ton respectively in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 14.6% / + 6.6% / + 7.1% / + 5.0% / – 0.7% / + 8.4%. We believe that the increase in ton price is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of sales of high-end products. Profit side: affected by the rise of raw materials, the cost of China Resources beer / Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) / Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) / Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) / Budweiser Asia Pacific / Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) ton increased by 5.3% / 4.9% / 6.1% / 9.7% / 7.8% / 10.7% respectively, and the enterprise cost side was under pressure. In 2021, companies steadily promoted the upgrading of product structure and promoted the continuous rise of gross profit margin. Throughout the year, China Resources beer / Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) / Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) / Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) / Budweiser Asia Pacific / Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) achieved a gross profit margin of 39.2% / 36.7% / 50.9% / 45.0% / 53.9% / 38.4% respectively, of which Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) mainly benefited from the high growth of sales of high-end products, and the gross profit margin increased by 3.3pct. The upward pressure on short-term costs still exists, and the cost pressure is digested by locking the price in advance. It is estimated that the rise of raw materials in 2022 mainly comes from packaging materials and barley. In terms of aluminum, global aluminum prices are rising, and may reach a new high in the peak season of 2022; In terms of barley, affected by geopolitics and natural disasters, the harvest of barley in various places is not ideal, and the price may continue to rise in the future. Major beer enterprises take various measures to deal with the upward pressure of costs.
Summary of the first quarterly report of 2022: achieve a “good start” under the pressure of sales volume and cost. 2022q1, the “good start” market from January to February. Under the repeated epidemic in China in March, the beer consumption scene was limited, and the weak demand led to the pressure on the beer sales in the first quarter. International conflicts have pushed up commodity prices, and the prices of some raw materials have increased significantly. 2022q1 Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) sales volume is under pressure, and the upgrading trend of product structure is significant. The beer sales volume in 2022q1 is – 2.8% year-on-year, and the ton price is increased by 6.1% year-on-year Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) revenue increased steadily and the process of nationalization was promoted rapidly. The high-end products of 2022q1 company increased by 24.04% year-on-year Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) q1 turned losses into profits and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 863900 yuan; The strategy of large single products was steadily promoted, and the sales volume of Yanjing U8 single products in 2022q1 increased by more than 70% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: since February 2022, the epidemic situation in China has been repeated, dinner and hall food have been blocked, there is a lack of beer consumption scene, and the cost of raw materials and transportation has increased. At present, the beer industry is under great pressure. However, in the long run, the acceleration of high-end beer industry is uncertain, and it has not yet entered the peak season of beer consumption. On the cost side, liquor enterprises use various means to control the rise of costs, and can pass on the cost pressure by raising prices and improving product mix. If the epidemic can be better controlled before the peak beer consumption season and release consumer demand, the beer industry will have greater flexibility. Recommend China Resources beer, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , and pay attention to Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) .
Risk tips: economic downturn risk, repeated epidemic situation, weak recovery of the scene, risk of failure of product price increase, and risk of intensified industry competition.
