The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 increased by 7.71% year-on-year, and the performance was in line with the expectation. The revenue of 22q1 industry was 1031.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 34.581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.71%; The performance is in line with expectations. Benefiting from the inventory income brought by the rise of oil price, the gross profit margin of 22q1 was 18.00%, which remained at a high level; The price spread performance narrowed as a whole, and 22q2 profit is expected to be under pressure. We are optimistic about structural investment opportunities.
In April, the oil price fluctuated at a high level and fell slightly, but it was still above US $100 / barrel. Affected by factors such as the dumping of reserves and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the oil price was under pressure and fell somewhat. In April, the monthly average prices of Brent and WTI were US $105.92/barrel and US $101.61/barrel respectively. The variables affecting oil prices in the future are still concentrated on the supply side, focusing on the Russian crude oil embargo and whether the Iranian nuclear agreement can be reached.
From January to March, China’s crude oil demand continued the downward trend in 2021, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.85%. From January to March, China processed 171 million tons of crude oil, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.49%; Crude oil output was 51.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.09%; Crude oil import was 127.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.17%; The apparent consumption of crude oil was 179 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.85%; The degree of external dependence was 71.38%, which continued to remain high.
From January to March, China’s natural gas demand continued to grow, but the growth rate fell, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.6%. From January to March, China’s apparent natural gas consumption was 94.4 billion m3, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%; The output was 57 billion m3, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; 38.7 billion cubic meters of imported natural gas, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%; The external dependence was 39.7%, which fell slightly, but continued to remain high.
From January to March, China’s demand for refined oil continued to increase, with a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. From January to March, China’s output of refined oil was 93.42 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4%; The export of refined oil was 6.12 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 52.7%. The sharp tightening of export quotas may be the main reason for the reduction of export; The apparent consumption of refined oil was 87.82 million tons, an increase of 21.4% year-on-year. Among them, the apparent consumption of gasoline, kerosene and diesel changed by 17.5%, – 29.5% and 39.9% respectively year-on-year.
Since the beginning of the year, the yield of petrochemical industry has been – 19.0%, which is better than the whole market, ranking 41st among 109 secondary sub industries. As of April 29, the overall valuation of petrochemical sector (PE (TTM)) was 8.65x. High oil prices have disturbed the overall profits of the industry. We suggest paying attention to the subjects positively related to oil prices, as well as the growth enterprises that carry out business layout and implement scale expansion to bring incremental performance. Satellite Chemistry ( Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) . SZ), Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) ( Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) . SH), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ) and other undervalued targets are recommended.
Risk tip: the risk of sharp rise in oil price, the risk of decline in industry prosperity, the risk of lower revenue than expected, etc.
