Precious metals: the geopolitical risk has dropped slightly, and the driving factors of precious metals have gradually shifted to the real interest rate framework. Gold: ① nominal interest rate: Recently, the geopolitical risk has dropped slightly, and the driving factor of precious metals has gradually shifted to the real interest rate framework. With the strengthening of the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase and contraction, the rise of the US dollar index has not decreased after breaking 100, and soared to the high level since the end of 2002, which has become the main reason for the decline of precious metal prices during the week; ② Expected inflation: implicit inflation + 9bp to – 0.01% within the week. The initial annualized quarterly rate of Q1 real GDP in the United States released on Thursday evening unexpectedly recorded – 1.4%. The PCE price index in March continued to reach a new high year-on-year of 6.6% (expected value of 6.7% and previous value of 6.4%), reflecting the increased risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy and the bottom recovery of gold; At present, there is no sign that the inflationary pressure has subsided, and the risk aversion is still in place before the situation in Russia and Ukraine is eased. There is still support under precious metals. In the short term, pay attention to the resolution of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting next week. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , etc.
Industrial metals: the steady growth conference improved the demand outlook, digested the sentiment of interest rate increase, and the metal price stabilized and rebounded. (1) Copper: ① macroscopically, the expectation of the Fed’s monetary interest rate increase & the fermentation of China’s epidemic, and the metal fell intensively at the beginning of the week. The resolution of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting will be officially ushered in next week. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of China will stabilize the demand expectation. After the interest rate increase is as expected, the metal is expected to meet the concentrated restorative rise; ② In terms of supply, BHP Billiton, Anglo American resources and other quarterly reports showed that the epidemic and the reduction of copper grade led to a decline in copper production. In addition, the import window continued to close, the import inflow was blocked, China’s copper spot supply was tight, and the spot discount was strong; ③ In terms of demand & inventory, the global copper inventory increased by 6000 tons to 608000 tons this week, of which China’s social inventory decreased by 28300 tons and LME inventory increased by 18300 tons. Under multiple factors such as improved logistics, falling copper prices and pre holiday goods preparation, the operating rate of refined copper rods rose 4.44 percentage points to 60.02% month on month this week, and China’s inventory fell rapidly. In April, the Politburo meeting released a strong signal of steady growth. The implementation of loose real estate, infrastructure expansion and optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies will increase the expectation of copper demand. The recovery and destocking logic is expected to support the relatively strong performance of copper prices. (2) Aluminum: ① in terms of cost: the price of pre baked anode and alumina in the week was the same as last week, the price of power coal increased slightly, and the profit level of single ton electrolytic aluminum (self owned power plant) fell by 892.6 yuan / ton to 2590 yuan / ton in the week, which was acceptable; ② Supply: according to the statistics of Baichuan Fuying, as of April 28, the total re production scale of electrolytic aluminum in China in 2022 was 3.672 million tons, 2.245 million tons have been re produced, 1.427 million tons are to be re produced, and the re production rate exceeds 60%. The resumption of production capacity in the first quarter will be released intensively from April to may, and the supply of primary aluminum market will rise steadily with strong certainty. On the other hand, the current epidemic still has an impact on aluminum supply and transportation, and the low arrival volume of warehouses has led to the decline of China’s aluminum society warehouse; ③ Demand & Inventory: the stock market went to the warehouse of 22800 tons to 886600 tons on Wednesday, and China social stock exchange went to the warehouse of 2210393 million tons, and the inventory began to show seasonal warehouse removal. The transportation situation in South and central China continued to improve, the downstream continued to return to work, the consumption rebounded month on month, the inventory of China Aluminum society decreased, the overseas inventory decreased to an all-time low, and the aluminum price was still supported in the short term. The medium and long-term price space depends on China’s steady growth policy and the fermentation of China’s epidemic situation. Suggestions and concerns include the following: the ‘ China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) etc.
Energy metals: in May, the downstream will welcome the just needed purchasing season, and the smelting profit of the upstream is expected to rebound. (1) Lithium: the price of electric carbon this week was the same as last week, at 475400 yuan / ton, and the price of electric hydrogen fell slightly by 7500 yuan / ton to 494800 yuan / ton. The auction price of spodumene in Pilbara in the second quarter was US $6254 / ton (sc6.0, CIF), and the cost support price of lithium carbonate was raised to 410000 yuan / ton (including tax). The short-term epidemic disturbance did not change the high fluctuation trend of lithium salt price. The lithium salt sector has fallen rapidly for one month since the end of March. The short-term impact risk of the epidemic has been fully released. The high outlook of the industry and the large amount of new production capacity of enterprises ensure that the sector continues to maintain high growth. At present, the whole sector is in the area of historical undervaluation and has a high safety margin; (2) Nickel: this week, nickel sulfate fell 0.49% to 5075 yuan / ton, the price difference between pure nickel and nickel sulfate narrowed to – 2632 yuan / ton, and nickel bean autosoluble nickel sulfate is still in a loss state. Due to the impact of cost pressure and epidemic transportation, the supply of nickel sulfate in April was lower than that of last month. The purchasing power of precursor enterprises is also insufficient. In order to ensure normal production in May, some ternary precursor enterprises began to accept nickel sulfate after the price rise, and the overall trading atmosphere of nickel sulfate was improved Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) announced that the company has signed a cooperation framework agreement with ptvale Indonesia TBK, and the two sides plan to cooperate to plan nickel cobalt hydroxide products (MHP) with an annual output of no more than 120000 tons of nickel metal. As the supply of nickel intermediate products increases, the subsequent price of nickel sulfate will continue to fall; (3) Cobalt: cobalt sulfate fell 3.32% to 116500 yuan / ton this week. At present, affected by the epidemic, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are limited, the market demand is relatively flat, and the price of cobalt salt continues to decline. Although the May Day holiday is approaching and the market demand for some goods prepared before the holiday has improved slightly, the epidemic has exacerbated the wait-and-see mood in the downstream, coupled with limited logistics and transportation, and the downstream purchase is cautious. The cost pressure continued to expand the losses of smelters. This week, the profit margin of cobalt sulfate processing fell by 23400 yuan / ton to -27300 yuan / ton. Many mainstream smelters have suspended quotation and shipment, and the market turnover is low. It is suggested to focus on the following: ‘ Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials(Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , etc. (Note: this week in the report refers to the week from April 25 to May 1)
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
