Basic conclusion
On the whole, under the external risk disturbance, the performance of Baijiu sector is still stable, the prosperity of dairy products continues, and the remaining sub sectors are still differentiated. At present, it is recommended to pay close attention to the inflection point of post epidemic demand repair for high value targets with strong layout certainty. At present, the Baijiu sector is still the first to be promoted, especially the deterministic high-end. It is suggested to continuously track the improvement of fundamentals + the easing of pressure on the cost side.
Baijiu: the sector is still a sub sector with a high level of certainty. The trend of product structure optimization driven by consumption upgrading continues, driving the gross profit margin to improve. In terms of high-end liquor, Maotai shows a certain flexibility in certainty. The improvement of internal corporate governance + the promotion of external market-oriented reform are still the first. The storage of secondary high-end liquor is differentiated to some extent. Affected by the epidemic disturbance outside the province, it is recommended to pay attention to the collection and delivery in the second quarter. The real estate liquor has strong defensive attributes, the base Market chassis is stable and the economy has strong alpha. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of Su liquor and Hui liquor.
Beer: 1) sales volume: the demand recovered in 21 years, but the demand did not return to the level of 19 years due to the epidemic, weather and vaccination. Under the disturbance of 21q4 epidemic, the sales volume generally shrank due to the superposition of supply side destocking and bu adjustment. The demand boom was high from January to February of 22 years, and the impact of the epidemic in March was Tsingtao Beer China Resources heavy beer ≈ Pearl River. 2) Ton price: thanks to price increase + structural upgrading (main contribution), the leading ASP has been rising in the middle to large single digits in the past 21 years. The ASP of 21q4 improved and slowed down month on month, which slowed down the pace of epidemic + high-end; The ASP growth rate of 22q1 is generally in the medium and large single digits, and the price increase effect appears one after another. 3) Ton cost: in 21 years, the ton cost of China Resources and Tsingtao beer increased by the median single digit, the pressure on Q4 improved, and Q1 deteriorated again. 4) Profitability: the 21-year cost pressure can be fully covered and left, the increase of sales rate is limited, the closure and layoffs continue, and the operation efficiency is optimized. 22q1 gross profit margin is under pressure, and the cost investment generally slows down. We believe that the cost pressure is controllable, pay attention to the progress of epidemic prevention and control in peak seasons, and pay attention to the long-term allocation value of leaders.
Dairy products: the business ability of the two strong companies is stable, and it is still a key defensive target in 22 years. 1) Performance review: the top two companies have maintained steady growth in revenue. Under the catalysis of the epidemic, the white milk scene has a high bearing, especially the large volume of high-end products. Under the pressure of milk price, through structural upgrading and cost reduction, the gross sales difference of Yili / Mengniu in 21 years was + 0.4/0.8pct year-on-year, and the net profit margin was + 0.6/1.0pct year-on-year, with strong profit control ability. 2) Future outlook: the anti risk ability is more prominent, and the habit of drinking milk after the epidemic is more stable. It is expected that the revenue of Yili and Mengniu will still grow in double digits or above this year.
Food synthesis: release pressure intensively and wait for marginal repair. 1) Performance review: among small snacks, Qiaqia is steady, and the gradual improvement trend of Ganyuan and Yanjin is obvious. Qiaqia and Ganyuan basically cover the cost pressure through price increase; The pressure of chain bittern flavor is very obvious. Jue flavor can still ensure the correct growth of revenue by taking the store against the trend, and its toughness is relatively strong; The quick-frozen sector has mostly met the expectations in the past 21 years, and 22q1 has been affected by a certain epidemic situation.
2) future outlook: most of the cost pressures have room to deal with, and the stocks damaged by the epidemic wait for marginal improvement.
Seasoning demand: Q1 is under pressure and Q2 is under pressure. In terms of cost, Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) is expected to start using low-cost raw materials in May, and we expect double-digit improvement in cost. Q3 US soybeans, oil, domestic pepper and other raw materials will usher in a new production season. It is expected that there will be costs and opportunities for next repair. In terms of price, Zhongju and Hengshun still need to wait until Q2, and the profitability of Q2 is expected to be improved. We expect that after the epidemic, with the clearance of small factories, the competition pattern is expected to improve, and the share of leading cities has a great opportunity to increase. We are optimistic about the long-term logic of demand rebound and market share increase of leading companies after the epidemic.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, continuous and repeated epidemic risk and regional market competition risk.
