Review the first quarterly report: under the background of the epidemic, one of the most impressive performance tracks in the consumer field, with high performance growth + certainty, and the stock price also has relative and absolute returns.
1. Why does the growth rate of leading performance generally exceed 30%—— high β+ The impact of the epidemic is small
Yimei: the industry is a low penetration and high growth track. The growth rate of the industry itself is fast + the epidemic mainly affects the performance of 1-2 weeks at the end of March, and March is not a peak season, so the impact of the epidemic is small. Cosmetics: high proportion Online + concentrated consumption in peak season. 3.8 Gmv usually accounts for 40% - 50% of Q1. The first 3.8 section of epidemic control has ended; Tight supply chain of epidemic situation + introduction of new regulations to accelerate the elimination of small brands.
2. Why is there obvious differentiation of company performance—— α Differences, main business drag and epidemic impact, etc
Type 1: strong α The leading card position is a high-quality track, the business is pure, and the product force + channel force + brand force resonates. For example, Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) net profit + 86%, Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) + 64%, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) + 44%, Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) + 31%.
Type 2: the growth rate of medical beauty / cosmetics of compound companies is beautiful, but other businesses drag down the apparent performance. For example, Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) net profit was - 7% and Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) -23%, but its medical and beauty cosmetics sector increased.
Type 3: the epidemic affects the supply chain + fluctuations in raw material prices + capacity climbing, and the performance growth of some companies slows down or is under pressure. For example, Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) net profit + 21%, Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) + 18%, Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) - 20%.
Looking forward to the second quarterly report: it is undeniable that the epidemic has a negative impact, but Yimei cosmetics has good performance toughness, fast rebound speed after the epidemic and strong rebound certainty. The sector is expected to continue to outperform
Medical beauty: the impact on medical consumption is obvious, and some terminal institutions are closed. However, the consumption stickiness of medical beauty is good, and the consumption power of target customers is guaranteed. Therefore, the rebound speed is fast and the rebound certainty is strong after the epidemic, and it is expected to make up for it. Cosmetics: online accounts for a high proportion + 618 revenue usually accounts for 50% of Q2. Judging from the overall improvement of epidemic control in June + double 11 is the focus of annual performance (accounting for 60% - 80% of Q4 revenue and 20% - 40% of the whole year).
Investment logic: the long-term logic has not changed. The bottom of the valuation is suitable for getting on the bottom and holding for a long time; The short-term suggestion is to pay attention to the make-up opportunities of the company that did not follow the rise in the early stage, but the medical beauty cosmetics business exceeded expectations
1) long term logic: 40% correction in the early stage, the valuation bottom in recent 1-2 years, and the investment logic has not changed significantly. Good industry, high growth and low penetration; Good company with strong growth and certainty. Medical beauty: the five-year CAGR of medical beauty is 25%, and the overall penetration rate of medical beauty is 3.6%, less than 1 / 3 of Japan. The upstream has high requirements for R & D + qualification, CR7 exceeds 90%, and the leading city accounts for 20%. Pay attention to Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) . Functional skin care: CAGR 28% in 5 years, penetration rate 7%, about 1 / 3 of developed countries, high requirements for R & D + endorsement, CR10 over 80%, leading market accounting for 20% +. Pay attention to Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , etc.
2) short term logic: companies with high performance growth + certainty judged by market foresight have obvious relative returns in April; Some companies did not follow the rise, but their performance exceeded expectations or repaired quarterly. There is a logic of making up the rise. Type 1: some composite companies did not follow up in the early stage because other businesses dragged down the apparent growth rate. If there is medical cosmetics exceeding expectations + other business impact digestion, consider the early sector market to pull up the valuation center, or there is a make-up logic. Pay attention to Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , etc. Type 2: the performance is expected to be repaired quarterly. Pay attention to Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) etc.
Risk tips
1. New distributors join in and the competition intensifies the risk.
2. Macroeconomic and market demand fluctuation risk.
3. Product R & D risk.
4. Product quality control and other risks.
5. Enterprise brain drain, strategic mistakes and other risks.
6. The risk that the enterprise marketing model cannot adapt to market changes.
7. Risk of repeated epidemic.
8. Other risks.
