China's IT industry has entered the stage of industrial upgrading, and the change direction of growth rate is decoupled from GDP. 1) Historically, the revenue growth rate of the software industry has been higher than that of GDP for many years. Even in the era of integrated outsourcing, the growth rate of the software industry remains high, but the basic direction is the same; Since 2017, China's GDP growth began to slow down. However, the growth rate of software business revenue showed an upward trend and partially decoupled. 2) China's computer industry has gradually transformed from the past integrator model to product, cloud and artificial intelligence, and the emergence of platform companies has accelerated. Cloud computing is in the growth stage, AI is approaching the critical point of penetration, and it technology upgrading drives a new round of growth, which can resist periodic fluctuations to a certain extent. The performance of 2022q1 of many industry digital leading enterprises such as Haikang, Dahua, central control, Glodon Company Limited(002410) etc. exceeded expectations, which confirmed the certain anti cycle ability brought by the technology drive of the computer industry.
The epidemic may affect the second to third quarters of this year, but the impact is weak in the annual dimension. In 2020, when Q1 was also affected by the epidemic, the epidemic sealing and control measures made it difficult for many computer companies to conduct business visits and project implementation and delivery. Therefore, the computer industry shrank in 2020q1, and the overall revenue growth rate was - 20.86%; However, with the good control of the epidemic, after only two quarters of recovery, the revenue growth of the computer industry returned to nearly 7% in the fourth quarter of 2020, and then the revenue growth of the industry completely returned to the pre epidemic level in 2021. The current round of epidemic in Shanghai began at the end of March. At present, the number of new cases per day in Shanghai has been in a downward trend and has been gradually controlled. According to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, in 2022q1, when affected by the epidemic, the year-on-year growth rate of software industry revenue still reached 11.6%, showing a steady performance. Referring to 2020, the epidemic may bring short-term disturbance to q2-q3 of the computer industry, but the impact is weak in the whole year, which belongs to the controllable category.
Throughout the global history, digitalization is the inevitable choice under the promotion of human cost. In 2020, the proportion of employed population in China's primary industry decreased to 24%, which is close to the middle stage of industrialization; The demographic dividend has gradually faded, and the human cost has risen to the level of Europe and the United States in the 1980s. According to the development history of Europe and the United States, it has reached the inflection point of the urgent growth of digital demand, and digital means need to be taken to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The essence of digitalization is a more automatic and intelligent production tool, which can enable thousands of industries. It is an inevitable choice under the increase of labor cost.
The latest case analysis of industrial digital: aiot is fully integrated with digitization, and leading companies begin to recognize digitization as the core driving force of competition. 1) In the field of agriculture, the smart planting / breeding scheme can improve the management precision and prevent and control African swine fever; In the industrial field, the "zero manual" scheme can reduce the frequency of factory manual operation by 90%, and the self-control rate can reach 99%, significantly improving labor productivity; In business and other fields, AI can enable various scenes such as parks, parking lots, epidemic prevention isolation points and logistics storage points to improve the efficiency and safety of people flow and logistics operation. 2) According to Accenture data, the revenue growth rate of China's leading digital application enterprises in 2020 reached 3.7 times that of other enterprises, the anti risk ability was significantly improved, and the digital effect was remarkable. TCL, Jiumu, Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.Ltd(600704) and other leading enterprises in China's industry and manufacturing industry have launched digital transformation one after another. From the statement of their relevant principals, digitization is the core driving force of competition, which has become the consensus of these leading enterprises.
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Risk warning: the economic downturn exceeded expectations; Financial expenditure is lower than expected; Trade frictions intensified.
