Core view
Summary of the annual report and the first quarterly report of the chemical industry: in 2022, overseas supply was impacted by the epidemic and extreme weather, the Russian Ukrainian war had an impact on the energy supply pattern in Europe, the global supply chain was interrupted periodically under the covid-19 epidemic, and the flow of global chemical trade was reshaped. Driven by the rise of energy, resource products and bulk chemical raw materials, as of April 27, 2022, CCPI has rebounded to 5751 points, 11.9% higher than 5138 points. Recently, the CCPI index mainly operates at a high level and fluctuates. In April, the international oil price decreased first and then increased, continuing the trend of fluctuation. Considering the long-term complexity of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the recovery of global demand, we are still optimistic that the international oil price will remain at the current high level. As of April 28, among the 441 chemical listed companies with a shares, about 410 companies have disclosed the annual report of 2021, of which 377 companies achieved positive year-on-year growth in operating revenue in 2021, accounting for 92.0%; 296 companies achieved positive year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to parent companies, accounting for 72.2%; About 355 companies disclosed the first quarterly report of 2022, of which 215 companies achieved positive year-on-year growth, accounting for 60.6%. On the whole, the chemical market in 2022 is full of uncertainty, and the performance level of the chemical sector is significantly differentiated.
Investment view of the chemical industry in May: the energy reform and long-term deep emission reduction under the background of “double carbon” in the future are the inevitable trend of China’s future economic and social development, which will vigorously promote the rapid development of China’s low emission technology and promote the development of petroleum and chemical industry towards higher quality and more sustainable direction. In addition, the 14th five year development plan for petrochemical industry will accelerate the construction of a modern petroleum and chemical industry system, promote China’s transformation from a large petrochemical country to a powerful Petrochemical country, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the chemical industry to high-end new materials. We are firmly optimistic that benefiting from the major transformation and upgrading of China’s energy structure, China’s chemical industry is in an important period of strategic opportunities, and the upstream material field of new energy has ushered in major development opportunities. We are still optimistic about the sustained high momentum of EVA, iron phosphate lithium iron phosphate, industrial silicon trichlorosilane polycrystalline silicon, PVDF and other new energy chemical products this year. We suggest paying attention to the rebound opportunities of relevant new energy chemical material targets. Looking forward to may 2022, we focus on the prosperity of potassium fertilizer, trichlorosilane, soda ash and glufosinate.
Portfolio of this month:
[ Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) ] there is uncertainty in the supply of overseas potash fertilizer, and the company is becoming a world-class potash fertilizer supplier;
[ Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) ] the project has entered the harvest period and entered the fast lane of growth;
[ Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) ] global glyphosate giant, innovation leads the future;
[ Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ] the high prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry helps the high growth of performance, and makes innovation to enter the field of new energy;
[ Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) ] the business of chemical fertilizer and combined alkali is booming, and the construction of iron phosphate project is steadily promoted;
[ Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603938) ] photovoltaic led to a sharp rise in the price of trichlorosilane and increased the layout of new materials.
Risk warning: crude oil price fluctuates sharply; Overseas epidemic recovery is less than expected; The demand is lower than expected.
